New England PatriotsDownload App

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 22:  Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots talks to receivers Aaron Dobson #17, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman #11 and Michael Hoomanawanui in the huddle during the second half of their 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Gillette Stadium on September 22, 2013 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Winslow Townson/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured Columnist IVDecember 9, 2016

New England is 3-0 but played its first solid game in Week 3. With TE Rob Gronkowski possibly returning, Tom Brady gets one of his reliable targets back.

The Atlanta Falcons opened as small home underdogs, but the money quickly swung them to -1.5 by Tuesday. Atlanta is struggling with injuries and could be facing the Pats at just the wrong time.

 

Point spread: The Patriots opened as two-point favorites, but the line swung to -1.5 in favor of the Falcons; the total was sitting at 49.5 early Tuesday. (Line updates and Matchup report).

OddsShark.com computer says: 26-17, Patriots

 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England covered its first spread in Week 3 and will be tough, whether as a small dog or small chalk. Falcons RB Steven Jackson is injured and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and starting defensive end Kroy Biermann are expected to miss the game, opening the door a bit wider for Brady to sneak off with a victory.

 

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta needs a big effort from their backups, but they are more than capable of handling the Patriots, especially if New England reverts to its Week 1-2 form. They are 23-6 SU in their past 29 home games and always seem to cover at home early in the season.

 

Smart Pick

The computer likes the Patriots, and it's hard to argue with the Falcons injuries and Patriots seemingly hitting their stride. New England has won and covered the past three meetings with Atlanta, but we see the Falcons rebounding from a tough loss to Miami and continuing their home domination in the month of September.

 

Trends

Falcons 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS in 15 September home games since 2003.

Pats 6-1 ATS past seven as road underdog of 1-3 points.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark–follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Download
Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices