NFL Picks Week 4: Underdogs Who Will Cover Opening-Line Spreads

Matt FitzgeraldCorrespondent IIISeptember 24, 2013

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 22:  Brian Hartline #82 of the Miami Dolphins reacts to scoring a touchdown pass during a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Sun Life Stadium on September 22, 2013 in Miami Gardens, Florida.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Several opening lines for the NFL's Week 4 action are liable to shrink between now and the impending weekend, but some nevertheless aren't showing enough respect for the perceptive underdogs.

Competition has been tight thus far in the 2013 season, and the league landscape seems to be changing at a rapid rate. Five of the six NFC playoff teams from last year are below .500, and there is no clear-cut favorite in any AFC division.

Here is an early look at some spreads as seen on, along with analysis and score predictions for the games.


New York Jets (+6.5) over Tennessee Titans

This line seems a little bit inflated, because as improved as the Titans seem to be, they should not be a touchdown favorite over a Jets team that seems better than anyone expected—even at home.

Geno Smith threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns with a QBR of 85.8. Bilal Powell had 149 yards rushing in the Jets' 27-20 win against the Buffalo Bills to get back to .500 in the AFC East and improve to 2-1.

With the exotic defenses Rex Ryan can befuddle even elite quarterbacks with, Tennessee signal-caller Jake Locker may be in for some trouble.

Not to take anything away from Locker's clutch play down the stretch of Sunday's victory over the San Diego Chargers, where he tossed a 34-yard touchdown to Justin Hunter with just seconds on the clock.

However, it's hard to believe someone as shoddily accurate as Locker won't make a critical mistake against such an aggressive defense.

The young quarterback battle will be intriguing to watch, but look for the Jets' stout run defense to force Locker to beat them with his arm. Tennessee won't quite survive—and wouldn't have by a touchdown or more.

Prediction: Jets 20, Titans 10


Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 22:  Tyrann Mathieu #32 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates an interception against the New Orleans Saints during a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 22, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  The Saints defeated the C
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Entering Week 3, the Bucs had been struggling as much as anyone else in the league, having lost seven of their last eight games under second-year head coach Greg Schiano:

That wasn't helped with a trip to Foxborough, where the New England Patriots dismantled Tampa 23-3. Quarterback Josh Freeman looked lost and posted his worst passer rating of the season with a 54.5.

Somehow, the Buccaneers are being spotted three points against a Cardinals team that got beat 31-7 by a legitimate playoff contender in the New Orleans Saints.

Between Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer has plenty of weapons in the passing game at his disposal.

Tampa Bay's pass rush is improved from a season ago, but this bunch just seems in disarray. Trade speculation has surrounded Freeman, and this shouldn't be a situation where games are daisy-chained, as the Bucs lost only 16-14 to the Saints in Week 2.

The Cardinals are better than their blowout loss reflected and will prove it in climbing back to .500 this coming Sunday on the road.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Buccaneers 17


Miami Dolphins (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 15:  Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Miami Dolphins throws a pass during the NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 15, 2013 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The bold moves GM Jeff Ireland made in the offseason certainly look to be paying dividends right now, as the completely revamped roster of the Dolphins has netted a 3-0 record thus far.

Who would have thought that what is arguably Week 4's most anticipated game would be between two non-playoff teams from a season ago? It happens on Monday night, too, which only adds to the hype.

Ryan Tannehill seems to be justifying Ireland's selection of him at No. 8 overall in the 2012 draft. He rallied the team back from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter, then engineered the game-winning drive in the final minute:

Experts took notice of the statement win over the Atlanta Falcons:

The AFC East suddenly has a plethora of talented signal-callers to complement Patriots superstar Tom Brady.

But let's not discount the Saints, who are undefeated to date as well thanks to an immensely improved defense under new coordinator Rob Ryan.

NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 22:  Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan of the New Orleans Saints stands on the sidelines during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 22, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Chri
Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Drew Brees and the passing attack is operating at a high level, but their inability to run the ball (24th in the league) will allow the likes of Cameron Wake and Co. to pin their ears back and pressure Brees in the pocket.

Miami is tied for third in the league with five interceptions, and Brees has already tossed four picks. Look for the Dolphins to continue rolling in a narrow victory in New Orleans.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Saints 20