Dwayne Bowe's Fantasy Trade Value, Outlook Heading into Week 2

Mike Moraitis@@michaelmoraitisAnalyst ISeptember 11, 2013

Sep 8, 2013; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) warms up before the start of the the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Dwayne Bowe didn't get off to an ideal start to the 2013-14 season for the Kansas City Chiefs, and his lackluster performance is a microcosm of what should be expected the rest of this season.

Bowe caught just four passes (six targets) for 30 yards and failed to get into the end zone in the Chiefs' 28-2 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. If Bowe couldn't get anything going against the lowly Jags defense, things won't get much easier from here on out against better competition.

The biggest problem for Bowe is the man throwing to him. Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't have a big arm by any stretch, so making big plays will have to come more as a result of Bowe making it happen rather than a long pass from the arm of Smith.

In 34 passes during the first game of the season, Smith averaged about 5.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranked him second-to-last in the NFL next to Blaine Gabbert.

Spreading the ball around is also Smith's forte, as was evidenced in Week 1.

The Chiefs signal-caller connected with nine different receivers with six of them getting four targets or more. Also, Bowe didn't get any looks in the red zone as Smith turned to Donnie Avery and Junior Hemingway to get the ball into the end zone.

While Smith may not have figured it out yet, Bowe is by far this team's best receiver.

Having broken the 1,000-yard mark three times in his career, Bowe is the most accomplished receiver on the team by the numbers, thus opposing defenses will be focused on stopping him when planning against Kansas City's passing game.

That will leave some of the best corners in the game covering Bowe on a weekly basis, and that will no doubt make gaining yards through the air a more challenging task.

Another interesting set of stats comes from Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star, who dropped some knowledge about head coach Andy Reid's history with receivers.

According to Paylor's piece, don't expect Bowe to get a lot of action with the Chiefs. In his 14-year career with the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid never had a receiver who caught more than 77 passes, and since 2005, a tight end or running back has led Reid's teams in catches five times.



Trade Value

If you're depending on Bowe to be your top receiver, you're already in trouble at the receiver position. Because of his situation with KC, Bowe's numbers will not warrant him being started as a No. 1 option.

Granted, it's still early, but in order to get the very best value for Bowe, trading him right away would be the best bet before opposing owners realize how worthless he is fantasy-wise. If Bowe's numbers continue to be disappointing, his value will only drop in the coming weeks and months.

Owners interested in landing Bowe may still think of him as a No. 1 receiver, which would be a mistake on their part. However, let their mistake be your benefit as you look for a No. 2 NFL receiver for what your trade partner thinks is a great deal for a No. 1.

Guys like the Miami Dolphins' Brian Hartline, Green Bay Packers Jordy Nelson or even Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys could be had for Bowe since they are all considered No. 2 receivers on their respective teams.

Or, you could aim for a lesser No. 1 receiver like Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts or Torrey Smith of the Baltimore Ravens as Wayne isn't getting the same respect he used to because of age and Smith's team isn't expected to do much this season.

Regardless, both are likely to produce more points in fantasy than Bowe.

If you wish to hold onto Bowe, there is a silver lining as the Chiefs have a favorable schedule with games against the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers two times apiece, as well as matchups with weak secondaries in the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts, to name a few.

In Week 2, the Chiefs will welcome the Cowboys, so if Bowe remains ineffective once again against a bad secondary, it's definitely time to consider making a deal.

When looking to trade for Bowewhether it be for depth or actual needit's best to wait it out. If you can't wait, you may have to offer up a No. 2 receiver like the ones mentioned above.

Unless you're giving up next to nothing, there's no need to chase Bowe in a trade unless there is some kind of drastic change at quarterback for the Chiefs.

If we learned anything with Michael Crabtree of the San Francisco 49ers, it's that Smith doesn't make receivers better until he's gone. Instead, he looks to manage games and not force turnovers, which is bad news for owners looking to get some points out of Bowe.