Jerome Simpson Will Not Duplicate Incredible Performance for Vikings
Jerome Simpson came through with one of the more surprising individual performances in Week 1, but this will not be the start of a big year for the Minnesota Vikings receiver.
Against the Detroit Lions, Simpson led the team with seven receptions for 140 yards. His eight targets were also the most for Minnesota.
He showed the ability to make some impressive catches on deep balls to tally plays of 44 and 47 yards. However, this type of production is not necessarily sustainable over the course of a season. If you are thinking of picking him in in fantasy football, you should think again.
A year ago, Simpson played 12 games for the Vikings and only managed 26 catches for 274 yards and no touchdowns. This was with few alternate options in the receiving corps once Percy Harvin went down.
While Harvin was traded to the Seattle Seahawks during the offseason, the team added Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson. By the end of the year, both of these players should end up with bigger roles in the offense.
Jennings was right behind Simpson in the game with seven targets, while Patterson only had one but does have huge upside. Once he gets more comfortable, his production is certain to increase.
Was Jerome Simpson's Week 1 performance a fluke?
This puts Simpson as the second or third option on the roster. While this is still good on some teams (it works for the Denver Broncos), the Vikings are a running team with a passing attack that is well below average.
Due mostly to the fact that Adrian Peterson was on the roster, Minnesota rarely threw the ball last season and finished second to last in passing offense. Only four teams had fewer pass attempts in 2012, and that is unlikely to change this season.
Additionally, Christian Ponder appears to be regressing as a quarterback. He had a few successful long passes on the day, but he also threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. This type of effort will not help any of his receivers this season.
Finally, a big part of success in fantasy football is scoring touchdowns. Unfortunately, most plays near the end zone tend to go to Peterson, who had 12 scores on the ground last season.
When the Vikings do pass the ball near the goal line, it often goes to Kyle Rudolph. The tight end scored half of the team's 18 passing touchdowns in 2012 with another going to Peterson. No receiver had more than three receiving touchdowns.
Simpson had a big game against an inconsistent defense to start the season. However, he will not be able to catch 40-yard passes with consistency, especially when he had zero last season.
As a secondary target on a bad passing offense, this game will likely be his best showing of the year.
Fantasy owners should pass on him this week when it comes to the waiver wire and use that pickup on a player who will produce all season long.
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