NFL Betting Trends: Jacksonville Jaguars Best Week 1 Bet?

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistSeptember 5, 2013

JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 24:  A pair of  young Jacksonville Jaguar fans hold up signs during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at EverBank Field on August 24, 2013 in Jacksonville, Florida.  (Photo by Brian Cleary/Getty Images)
Brian Cleary/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars are generally viewed as the NFL's worst team, with the longest Super Bowl odds of any team.

But that isn't stopping bettors from backing the Jags in Week 1 because of their point spread history.

No team has been a better season-opening bet than the Jaguars, who are 12-2 ATS in their past 14 openers, according to the searchable NFL database at, which has lines data from 1980 to present.

When they open at home (which they do this Sunday against Kansas City), their record is even better at 8-1 ATS.

"As always, trends should be taken with a large grain of salt, but there are some streaks and patterns that should make a bettor think twice," Jack Randall, an NFL analyst at, said in an interview today.

"The Patriots always beat the Bills; the Cowboys never cover the spread in the division whereas the Redskins always seem to cover in the NFC East."

Some data mining this week turned up a few trend nuggets for Week 1.


Patriots -10/50 at Bills

New England has beaten Buffalo 23 of the last 25 times they've played and covered the spread in seven of their last nine games at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Also, the OVERs are 7-2 in the Bills' last nine September games and 9-2 in the Patriots' last 11 games played in September.


Saints -3/55 vs. Falcons

New Orleans has beaten Atlanta 11 of the last 14 times they've met at the Superdome and has covered the spread four of the last five meetings overall. Also, the last five games in this series played in New Orleans have gone OVER on the totals, as have five of the Saints' last six season openers. But beware the Falcons in Week 1, as they are on an 11-4 ATS run.


Lions -6/47 vs. Vikings

Minnesota is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 season openers and 5-1-2 ATS in its last eight games against Detroit. Also, the OVER/UNDER is 12-1 the last 13 times the Lions have been listed as favorites. However, the Vikes are 1-10 SU (1-9-1 ATS) within the NFC North lately.


Rams -5/41 vs. Cardinals

The Rams have lost seven of the last eight games in this series played in St. Louis. They've also been poor starters recently, going 2-10 ATS in their last 12 season openers, and they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've been lined as favorites. Finally, eight of the last 10 games in this divisional rivalry have played UNDER on the totals.


49ers -5/49 vs. Packers

San Francisco has been quick out of the gate recently, winning seven of its last 10 season openers and going 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 September games.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers and 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it's been listed as an underdog. The Packers had beaten the Niners eight times in a row, and 13 out of 14, but San Francisco beat the Pack twice last year, most memorably in that NFC divisional-round playoff game at Candlestick.


Cowboys -3/48 vs. Giants (Sunday Night)

New York is 5-1 both SU and ATS in its last six visits to Big D. The Giants are also 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've been lined as underdogs. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers but just 2-12 in its last 14 NFC East divisional games. Eli Manning has never lost in four trips to the new Cowboys Stadium.


Redskins -4/52 vs. Eagles (Monday)

Philly has won 10 of its last 13 games at Washington but is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. On the other side of the coin, Washington is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games played in September and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games vs. NFC East rivals.


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