The Red and Gold Standard: A Valuation of 49er First Round Draft Selections

Since being selected with the first overall pick of the 2005 NFL draft, Alex Smith has failed to fulfill the role of 49er franchise quarterback.

Over the course of four tumultuous years and 30 career starts, Smith has thrown for 4,679 yards, 19 touchdowns, 31 interceptions, and a 63.5 quarterback rating.

Fortunately for McCloughan and company, the 2005 draft class was one of the weakest prospect classes in the last 15 years. Littered with top 10 busts such as Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Pacman Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Cedrick Benson the opportunity cost of the first overall selection was minimal in comparison to most drafts.

Even Demarcus Ware, the Cowboy’s Pro Bowl 3-4 outside linebacker who was selected by the Cowboys at 11th overall, would have seemed like a poor value selection at the No. 1 overall pick.

In fact, the only two top 10 selections to make the Pro Bowl were Browns’ wide receiver Braylon Edwards and Dolphins’ running back Ronnie Brown, both of whom have been highly inconsistent. Not a team in today’s NFL would give up a top 10 selection for Brown or Edwards’ services.

With that said, the 49ers passed over local-product and fan-favorite quarterback Aaron Rodgers with the selection of Smith. After Smith’s selection, the Cal-product fell all the way to the Green Bay Packers with the 24th overall pick.

Given that moth fans and analysts considered the 49ers’ selection to be a toss up between the two quarterbacks, Rodgers seems the most appropriate and prevalent bench-mark.

Aaron Rodgers:

While not a Pro Bowl quarterback (yet), Rodgers has recently produced impressive numbers in the Packers’ high powered offense including a 2008 season with 4,038 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and a 93.8 quarterback rating.

The fast-dying breed of Alex Smith supporters will attest to the fact that Smith faced much more adversity than Aaron Rodgers in his young career.

Smith was thrown into the starting role as a rookie, where as Rodger’s waited in the wings until the end of his third season.

Smith learned from watching Trent Dilfer; Rodgers mimicked Brett Favre.

Smith has had a receiving core consisting of NFL journeyman, where as Rodger’s has two Pro Bowl wide receivers in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

Smith has had five offensive systems in five years, where as Aaron Rodgers has only had one.

Smith has played behind a porous offensive line, Rodger’s has had sufficient protection.

While I still have faith in Alex Smith to resurrect his career into something meaningful, there is no denying that Rodgers is currently the more valuable player.

Conclusion:

Since having many chances to prove himself over his four years in the league, Alex Smith, unlike Aaron Rodgers’, has yet to resemble a franchise quarterback. The two quarterbacks’ current trade values and second contracts’ are enough to indicate Aaron Rodgers’ superiorly perceived value. This was a bad selection, and even worse job of development, by Scott McCloughan and Mike Nolan.

Despite having a formidable receiving tight end in Eric Johnson, the San Francisco 49ers went out and drafted Vernon Davis sixth overall in the 2006 NFL draft. Like most top 10 tight end selections, Davis has yet to establish himself as the elite receiving threat expected of him. In three seasons Davis has managed just 103 receptions for 1,132 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Although his statistics are far from meeting expectations, Davis has been hampered by a broken fibula and the necessity to stay in and block on passing downs. His tremendous ability to block has resulted in a Pro Bowl alternate selection in 2008.

Such unfortunate and statistic hindering circumstances leave a glimmer of hope that Davis has yet to reach his peak performance.

Haloti Ngata:

The most prominent opportunity cost of the 2006 sixth overall pick, was Haloti Ngata, the former Oregon DT who fell to the 12th overall selection. Despite the glaring need of a defensive-anchor for their new 3-4 scheme, the 49er front office passed on the best nose tackle prospect since Vince Wilfork. Ngata has since become the cornerstone of the Baltimore Raven’s elite playoff-caliber defense.

With Ngata’s recent success and the 49er’s lingering NT vacancy, Ngata appears to be the one that got away.

Conclusion:

By overvaluing potential and undervaluing need, McCloughan and Nolan selected a raw, unproven player at a position of little need. Unfortunately for the 49er organization, such potential has yet to be realized over three disappointing seasons. In depriving themselves of a franchise nose tackle, this was a terrible selection overall for San Francisco.

Like Vernon Davis, Many Lawson impressed the 49ers’ brass with his enormous potential and combine performance. Although exhibiting tremendous speed and agility on an equally impressive tall frame, Lawson lacked the collegiate production expected of a first round pass rusher. Since being selected 22nd overall, Lawson has failed to reach his potential.

Over the course of three injury plagued seasons, Lawson has amassed a measly 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks.

Although the 49ers had a need at OLB, there were other high-need fan-favorites on the board with better value and college production.

Santonio Holmes:

There was Ohio State standout wide receiver Santonio Holmes, who has since caught 156 receptions for 2,587 yards, and 15 touchdowns over the course of three years. In addition, Holmes was a key contributor to the 2009 Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers earning Super Bowl XLIII MVP honors. Given that Holmes was the best wide receiver available, the 49ers would have been wise to add a much needed playmaking target for quarterback Alex Smith.

Mathias Kiwanuka:

In addition to Holmes, there was Boston College defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka, a prospect who presented a much more pass-rush-proven OLB prospect than Manny Lawson. Kiwanuka was selected by the New York Giants 10 spots later at pick 32.

Since his selection, the former Boston College Eagle has outdone Lawson in every statistical category, accumulating 150 tackles and 16.5 sacks in three seasons. This includes a career best 2008 campaign of 50 tackles and eight sacks.

Conclusion:

In a foolish attempt to land elite yet unproven potential, McCloughan and Nolan passed over a proven and productive NFL pass rusher, as well as a franchise-leading wide receiver.

It’s a bad pick given either alternative prospect.

The 49ers lacked playmakers at all defensive positions entering the 2007 draft. With that said, the 49ers were able to address need as well as value by selecting Patrick Willis, the best defensive player available at pick 11. Willis has not disappointed.

Since being drafted Willis has accumulated 315 tackles, five sacks, and one interception returned for a touchdown in his two year career.

In addition to his impressive statistics, Willis has received recognition as one of the leagues’ elite players, including two Pro Bowl selections in two years.

In evaluating the opportunity cost of this jackpot selection, the two most popular alternative options were Nebraska defensive end Adam Carriker and LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe.

Adam Carriker:

Carriker was drafted just two selections later (13th overall) by the division rival St. Louis Rams. Since entering the league he has struggled to make an elite impact, registering a pedestrian 53 tackles and two sacks. Although a common result due to the slow learning curve of the defensive line position, Carriker looks to be merely a shadow of the playmaker and contributor of Patrick Willis.

Dwayne Bowe:

Dwayne Bowe on the other hand has emerged as an offensive star. In just two seasons, the Kansas Chief WR and former 23rd overall pick, accumulated 156 receptions for 2,017 yards and 12 touchdowns. Despite Bowe’s high level of production, Willis still remains the better value selection and impact player.

Conclusion:

Despite foregoing an offensive playmaker, the 49ers add an elite All-Pro defensive cornerstone. Overall, this was a phenomenal first round selection by McCloughan and Nolan. A first of their drafting careers under the spotlight.

In an attempt to land the last first round graded player on their board, the San Francisco 49ers traded up to select Joe Staley. Since being drafted, Staley has proven to be a capable long-term starting player for the 49er franchise, starting all 16 games at right tackle in 2007 and all 16 games at left tackle in 2008.

Although statistically surrendering 8.5 sacks in his 2008 campaign, most of his sack total can be attributed to both Mike Martz’s pass-happy offense and 49er quarterbacks (JT O’Sullivan) holding the ball for too long.

Over the course of his two year tenure, Staley has been one of San Francisco’s best and most consistent offensive lineman. Given Staley’s recent college transition to the tackle position, the sky is the limit for this potential Pro Bowl left tackle.

To acquire the 28th overall pick and rights to Joe Staley the 49ers forfeited a 2007 fourth round and 2008 first round selection. It is for this reason that Staley’s career can be compared to players of two draft classes.

With a clear need on the offensive and defensive line, the 49ers had two primary options with the 28th pick: offensive tackle or defensive tackle.

Alan Branch:

The best defensive tackle available at Staley’s selection was Alan Branch, the draft’s top nose tackle prospect and potential top 10 pick. On draft day, Branch’s draft stock fell due to his questionable work ethic and motor, as well as stress fractures discovered in his legs. In his lackluster two year career, Branch has been a complete non-factor, totaling just 15 tackles and no sacks for the Cardinal defense.

Tony Ugoh:

Besides Staley, the other top 2007 offensive tackle prospect available was Tony Ugoh, a player who the Colt’s selected with the second round (42nd overall) pick they acquired from the 49ers in exchange for a 2008 first round and 2007 fourth round selection.

Although conceding fewer sack totals than Staley at just two sacks in 2008, Ugoh has struggled to stay healthy. In his two year NFL career, Ugoh has missed nine regular season starts due to injury. His inability to stay on the field deflates both his sack total and dependability as a franchise player.

Ryan Clady:

Given that Boise State offensive tackle Ryan Clady was available at the seventh overall selection of the 2008 NFL draft (a pick which was forfeited by the 49ers in their Staley acquisition), Clady’s career will serve as an eternal benchmark to Joe Staley.

Had the 49ers’ not acquired Staley the season prior, the franchise would have most likely selected Ryan Clady, a tremendous value at a tremendous need, with their 2008 first rounder. In his rookie 2008 campaign, Clady was phenomenal.

Despite starting all 16 games protecting Jay Cutler’s left side, Clady surrendered a league low 0.5 sacks. In a rookie performance worthy of a Pro Bowl selection, Clady may give the 49er’s buyers remorse for their 2007 draft day trade.

Given Staley’s reasonable late-first-round contract, in-season consistency, durability as a starter, and versatility on both the left and right sides of the offensive line, his selection was certainly commendable. After all, first round offensive tackles have tremendous bust potential, making landing a long-term starter an accomplishment.

Although not a bust by any means, the opportunity cost of Ryan Clady may negate any positive net value from an otherwise solid first round selection.

Conclusion:

Given the possibility of a Clady sophomore slump and the continued development of Staley, it’s too close to call whether or not the trade for the 28th overall pick of the 2007 draft was worth foregoing Ryan Clady’s services (and a 2007 fourth round selection) for. Currently, however, the value is not as good as Staley’s solid performance would indicate.

With the assumption of the draft day trade in place, Staley appears to have a slight edge over the alternative prospects of his 2007 draft class.

Of all the 49ers’ first round draft selections under McCloughan, the 29th overall first round pick of 2008 was by far the most unpopular among the San Francisco fan base. That’s not a good first impression for the 49er GM in his first solo act following the departure of Mike Nolan.

To a majority of the media’s draft analysts and 49er fans, Balmer was neither the best player on the board, nor the best available player at his position.

With highly productive and electrifying playmakers such as Cal wide receiver DeSean Jackson and Auburn OLB prospect Quentin Groves still on the board, the 49ers’ front office passed on two high-valued, high-need players. In addition, the 49ers selected Balmer over the more productive and pass-rush capable Clemson defensive end, Phillip Merling.

Given that the 49ers gave up the rights to Tony Ugoh in acquiring the 29th overall pick of 2008 (in addition to the fourth round pick of 2007), Balmer and Ugoh also warrant career comparison.

Balmer stood true to his raw image and unimpressive college statistics by posting a lackluster rookie campaign. As a rotational player in 16 games, with zero starts, Balmer managed just seven tackles and zero sacks.

DeSean Jackson:

True to his explosive and productive college form, Jackson exploded onto the NFL scene in his rookie campaign, bringing in 62 receptions for 912 yards and two touchdowns. By being more productive than any 49er receiver in the last five years, and flashing dangerous ability as a special teams return man, DeSean Jackson proved to far exceed the value of the unpopular Balmer selection.

Unfortunately for McCloughan and company, the once-local Bay Area playmaker is as good as gone.

With another missed opportunity like that, McCloughan may soon be considered the same.

Quentin Groves:

Due to his size, speed, and proven pass rush-ability, Quentin Groves appeared to be an ideal candidate for the outside linebacker role in the 3-4 scheme. Upon being drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Groves posted noteworthy, yet marginal statistics in his rookie season with 13 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Like Balmer, Groves was victim of the slow NFL defensive line learning curve. As both players further develop and bulk up in the offseason, a more accurate valuation awaits at the end of the 2009-2010 season.

Phillip Merling:
After being passed over by the 49ers with the 29th overall pick, Phillip Merling fell to the top of the second round (32nd overall). Playing in a rotational role, Merling flashed playmaking potential with 25 tackles and one sack. Given his similar rotational role as a 3-4 defensive end, Merling’s comparable 2008 statistics far outmatch Balmer’s.

Despite winning the current stat competition, it is still far too early in the developing careers of Merling and Balmer to make an accurate valuation. After all, Balmer was seen as the more raw, yet high potential prospect while entering the draft. Such raw ability warrants him a year of judgment-free development.

Tony Ugoh:

As previously mentioned, Tony Ugoh thus far has developed into a highly effective, yet often injured left tackle. His commendable and proven on-field performance (although limited) over two seasons, gives Ugoh an early edge over the completely unproven Balmer.

Conclusion:

Although it was only his first year in the league, at a position with a slow learning curve, Balmer was completely ineffective and is currently the lowest valued of all popular, alternative 2008 selections. This bodes poorly for McCloughan’s 2008 first round draft performance.

Being the resounding fan favorite and (virtually) unanimous best player available, Michael Crabtree was a tremendous value selection on draft day. To make the pick even better, the selection fulfilled a need, adding the first San Francisco playmaking wide receiver since Terrell Owens (The short-lived Antonio Bryant experiment doesn’t count).

Although neither Crabtree nor his bench-mark counterparts have yet to play a snap in the NFL, his likely career comparisons will include:

Darius Heyward-Bey:

Although selected three spots ahead of Crabtree, Maryland wide receiver Darius Heyward-Bey will serve as competitive motivation to the two-time Biletnikoff Award-winner who felt slighted come draft day. The speedy yet raw Heyward-Bey was selected (reached) seventh overall by the Oakland Raiders. Given that Heyward-Bey was not on the board with the 10th overall pick, he cannot be seen as a foregone selection or opportunity cost. Rather, Heyward-Bey will likely provide a win-win benchmark perspective to compare the scouting abilities of Scott McCloughan and Al Davis.

Brian Orakpo:

Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo was selected 13th overall by the Washington Redskins. On draft day, the elite, freakishly athletic outside linebacker prospect seemed like the perfect cure for the 49ers’ pass-rushing woes. Only time will tell if the 49ers missed out on what could have been their best pass rusher since Julian Peterson.

Michael Oher:

Ole Miss offensive tackle Michael Oher fell all the way to 23rd overall where he was swooped up by the Baltimore Ravens. The large-bodied offensive lineman who was widely speculated to be the club’s Plan B at the 10th selection, and possible franchise bookend right tackle, will be a peripheral career to watch for 49er fans.

Jeremy Maclin:

Missouri wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was the only legitimate wide receiver passed over in the selection of Crabtree. Although more raw in his route-running and less productive in college, some scouts believe that Maclin’s speed, explosiveness, high-character, and special teams return-ability, will make him the best NFL wide receiver of the 2009 draft class. Maclin lasted until the 19th overall pick where he was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles to play along side DeSean Jackson, yet another San Francisco overlooked wide receiver. Hopefully, for McCoughan’s sake, the now-explosive Philadelphia Eagles won’t get network games in the Bay Area.