UFC Fight Night 27 Predictions You Can Take to the Bank

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UFC Fight Night 27 Predictions You Can Take to the Bank
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

The Fox Sports 1 era has begun.

The UFC's initial offering on the world's latest all-sports network was an unqualified success, filled to overflowing with great fights and big moments. The ratings for the event outperformed even the highest expectations, and the numbers cemented the UFC as one of the biggest draws for the new network.

In fact, it's not even close; the initial UFC on FS 1 event outperformed most episodes of Crowd Goes Wilda sports discussion show helmed by Regis Philbinby over 10 to one

With that said, I have no expectations that regular UFC on FS 1 events will pull anything close to that number. The first installment was a stacked show nearly worthy of pay-per-view status. We should not expect the same sort of status for Fox Sports 1 events going forward.

But we're still looking forward to a very good (at least from a fight perspective) second Fox Sports 1 event on Saturday night. It's headlined by a rematch of a fantastic bout from 2009, when Martin Kampmann scored a controversial split decision win over Carlos Condit, and the rest of the card is full of intriguing style matchups.

At the top of each slide, you'll find the current odds (via BetDSI), market percentage (the betting odds translated to percentages; this number tells you what kind of chance the market is currently giving each fighter to win) and my own percentages. 

By breaking down the odds in this fashion, we can determine if the current market percentage matches up with our own. We're looking for value in the numbers. If the market believes Fighter A has a 40 percent chance of winning the fight, but we believe Fighter A has a 65 percent chance to win, then we're seeing value in the numbers.

Eagle-eyed investors (a much nicer word for "degenerate gamblers") will want to keep an eye out for those moments when the market percentage differs greatly from your own. I typically look for a difference of at least plus-20 percent when handicapping fights. Ideally, I like to see plus-25 percent or greater.

If you're the gambling type, let me know what you think of my analysis in the comments below. And if you think I've missed anything, feel free to add it below as well. 

Let's get started.

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