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Breaking Down Champions League 2013-14 Odds

Mikhail TurnerContributor IIIAugust 30, 2013

Breaking Down Champions League 2013-14 Odds

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    The Champions League group stages begin in September 17th. This is a look at who has the best odds to win their respective groups and the tournament as a whole.

    The final 32 participants were separated into groups on Thursday, and there are some interesting ties for fans to look forward to. Defending champions Bayern Munich will be favorites, with teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid also strong contenders.

    The odds will be based on the overall strength of the sides involved and their recent history in the competition, both group and knockout stages. It's a bit easier to determine odds in the group stages using the past group stages, but that changes in the knockout rounds.

    For example, should Bayern Munich be the team with the highest odds of progression in the Round of 16 and quarter-finals, its because they would be the favoured team in any match-up during those rounds. The further into a competition a team goes with quality opponents, the less likely they are to progress.

    The 2013/14 Champions League season will be an exciting one, so let's take a look at who has the best odds of success. 

Group A Odds

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     Manchester UnitedShakhtar DonetskBayer LeverkusenReal Sociedad
    Winner 8/10 7/10 5/10 2/10
    Second Place 6/10 8/10 5/10 3/10
    Third Place 4/10 5/10 7/10 6/10
    Fourth Place 1/10 2/10 5/10 8/10

    Manchester United and Shakhtar Donetsk will be expected to progress from this group, but it won't be easy. David Moyes gets his first taste of the Champions League and couldn't have asked for a trickier group.

    Still, the quality and experience of the English and Ukranian clubs should come through in the end. Whether they end up first or second is another matter.

    Bayer Leverkusen and Real Sociedad have an outside chance of progression and can certainly make the group a tight one. Bayer Leverkusen's more recent European experiences give them the advantage in making it to the Europa League.

Group B Odds

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     Real MadridJuventusGalatasarayFC Copenhagen
    Winner 10/10 8/10 4/10 0/10
    Second Place 7/10 7/10 4/10 0/10
    Third Place 2/10 3/10 8/10 2/10
    Fourth Place 0/10 0/10 5/10 9/10

    Real Madrid and Juventus are the obvious favourites here, and despite a tough trip to Turkey, they should both ease into the knockout rounds.

    Madrid has all the tools necessary to trump Juventus in two games—especially if Gareth Bale joins the club—whether it's by winning both ties or by having the better point differential.

    Galatasaray will not fear the two big sides, but the Europa League is the Turkish club's most likely destination. FC Copenhagen will rack up the most losses in the group, though they could give Galatasaray a little fight for that third spot.

Group C Odds

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     BenficaParis Saint-GermainOlympiakosAnderlecht
    Winner 7/10 10/10 4/10 2/10
    Second Place 9/10 6/10 4/10 2/10
    Third Place 4/10 3/10 8/10 7/10
    Fourth Place 2/10 1/10 7/10 8/10

    Group C presents another set of obvious knockout round candidates, with Paris Saint-Germain and Benfica. The star-studded French side should nab the top spot, with the solid Portuguese club behind them.

    Olympiakos and Anderlecht are two teams with pedigree. Currently, they are no match for these sides and will battle it out for the third spot. 

    That will be a tighter race than the one at the top, and the Belgian side has a decent shot at continuing its European journey in the Europa League.

Group D Odds

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     Bayern MunichCSKA MoscowManchester CityViktoria Plzen
    Winner10/103/107/100/10
    Second Place 6/10 7/109/100/10
    Third Place 2/10 8/10 5/101/10
    Fourth Place 0/10 3/10 1/1010/10

    Bayern Munich will go through this group as big favourites, though they will be wary of Manchester City and CSKA Moscow.

    The Russian club could certainly grab the second spot if Manchester City isn't careful, and that will be the most interesting story of this group.

    City should make it to the knockout rounds this year, just beating out the Russian club in the process. Viktoria Plzen could try to spring a shock or two, but not much will be expected from the minnows of the group.

Group E Odds

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     ChelseaFC SchalkeFC BaselSteaua Bucharest
    Winner 10/10 7/10 4/10 0/10
    Second Place 6/10 9/10 5/10 2/10
    Third Place 2/10 5/10 7/10 5/10
    Fourth Place 0/10 1/10 6/10 7/10

    With Jose Mourinho back in charge, Chelsea will certainly progress from this easy group to the knockout rounds. Schalke will be expected to follow them.

    FC Basel and Steaua Bucharest will battle it out for third place in what should be a straightforward group. Basel has the potential to be a tricky opponent for both the favoured sides, and a trip to Romania won't be easy either.  

Group F Odds

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     ArsenalMarseilleBorussia DortmundNapoli
    Winner 8/10 5/10 9/10 7/10
    Second Place 7/10 6/10 6/10 7/10
    Third Place 6/10 7/10 5/10 6/10
    Fourth Place 5/10 8/10 4/10 5/10

     The "Group of Death" this season consists of Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal, Napoli and Marseille. All these teams can potentially progress to the knockout rounds.

    Borussia Dortmund, and the seasoned Arsenal will be slight favourites, but Napoli and Marseille will have plenty to say about who goes through.

    The French side is the weakest of the bunch, but this group is completely open.

Group G Odds

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     FC PortoAtletico MadridZenit St. PetersburgAustria Wien
    Winner 9/10 7/10 8/10 0/10
    Second Place 7/10 6/10 7/10 1/10
    Third Place 5/10 3/10 4/10 8/10
    Fourth Place 2/10 2/10 2/10 9/10

     Group G will be another tight group, though Porto FC and Atletico Madrid look favorites right now. Zenit St. Petersburg has Champions League pedigree and will be tough opposition.

    In the end, the Portuguese and Spanish clubs should progress, though Zenit St. Petersburg is certainly capable of getting into the knockout rounds. Austria Wien may play a role in hindering one or two of these clubs' ability to progress. 

Group H Odds

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     BarcelonaMilanAjaxCeltic
    Winner 10/10 6/10 4/10 1/10
    Second Place 6/10 8/10 5/10 4/10
    Third Place 1/10 4/10 9/10 6/10
    Fourth Place 0/10 2/10 5/10 8/10

     Barcelona are clear favourites for this group, though there won't be one easy tie for the Spanish club. AC Milan are the most likely runners-up in a group full of historical clubs. 

    Ajax and Celtic could certainly pose a threat to the top two sides, but they are most likely vying for a spot in the Europa League.

     

Round of 16 Odds

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    Given the odds presented in the group stages, the participants in the Round of 16 will include these teams. 

    Group A: Manchester United, Shakhtar Donetsk

    Group B: Real Madrid, Juventus

    Group C: Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica

    Group D: Bayern Munich, Manchester City

    Group E: Chelsea, FC Schalke

    Group F: Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal

    Group G: Porto, Atletico Madrid

    Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan

    While we don't exactly know who will get who in the Round 16, we can put forward odds for progression based on the strength of those likely to be involved.

    Juventus and Manchester City are the two second place teams that are most likely to progress, if they get the right opponent. With that in mind, here's the odds for progression to the quarter-finals for these 16 teams.

      

    Bayern Munich10/10 
    Barcelona 9/10
    Real Madrid 9/10
    Chelsea 8/10
    Borussia Dortmund 8/10
    Juventus 7/10
     Manchester United 7/10
     Manchester City 7/10
     Paris Saint-Germain 6.5/10
     Arsenal 6/10
     AC Milan 5.5/10
    Shakhtar Donetsk5/10
    Porto5/10
    Atletico Madrid4/10
    Benfica3/10
    FC Schalke2/10

    The Round of 16 may have its surprises, but the clubs with top managers, top players and experience should expect to progress given the opposition at this stage.

Quarter-Finals Odds

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    The quarter-final participants would then include; Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester United and Manchester City.

    It's very likely that at least three of the same semi-finalists from last season will return to that stage. Here are the odds for the semifinal stage of the competition.

     

    Bayern Munich8/10
    Barcelona7/10
    Real Madrid7/10
    Chelsea7/10
    Borussia Dortmund6/10
    Juventus5/10
    Manchester United4/10
    Manchester City3/10

     Jose Mourinho gives Chelsea a real edge in this competition, while the Spanish giants and the defending champions have a good chance of progression. Again, this is before any knowledge of who will face who and is based on the fact that one team would be favoured over another should they be paired.

Semi-Finals/Finals/Winner Odds

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    We get down to four teams with only one manager who has failed to win this competition. Gerardo Martino's Barcelona side should progress far on talent, but they will most likely fail at the semi-finals hurdle again.

    Real Madrid7/10
    Bayern Munich7/10
    Chelsea6/10
    Barcelona6/10

    It will be a tightly contested semi-finals, but the odds are in favour of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich facing off in the final. It will be Real Madrid picking up its tenth Champions League title in the end.

    Real Madrid6/10
    Bayern Munich5/10

    The odds for the two clubs in the final are virtually even because of the strength of the squads, their experience and the coaches involved. In the end, Cristiano Ronaldo proves the difference in a historical win for Real Madrid.

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