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Matt Schaub is coming off back-to-back weak seasons, ranking as the No. 24 and then No. 19 fantasy quarterback in the past two years, respectively.
Why then will he be a bargain when his ADP ranks him as the No. 19 fantasy quarterback this year and the 134th player overall?
Well, it is because Schaub is just two years removed from a pair of top-10 fantasy seasons, and he's added weapons this year. Not only does he have Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, but rookie DeAndre Hopkins is already on this list as a value pick as well. There's a reason for that, and it's because he's talented enough to take advantage of the space created when the defense goes after Johnson.
Schaub has slipped in part because of the emergence of Arian Foster and the run game, but while the Texans threw less than they normally do in 2012, it wasn't by much.
In 2009, Schaub threw the ball 583 times, and then he threw it 574 times the following year. Yes, his pass attempts dropped in 2012, but only to 544, which is not a big drop. The lower yardage total is more due to the shorter yards per attempt (7.4 in 2012, down from 8.2 in 2009).
Fantasy GMs don't realize this and have reacted as if he stopped throwing the ball.
The other reason he's dropped is the fact that he isn't an elite NFL quarterback, which has been confused with his fantasy value.
Plenty of non-elite quarterbacks have been outstanding fantasy quarterbacks. Matt Stafford is a recent example, as he gets tremendous fantasy points but is certainly not among the league's best QBs.
Schaub is cheap at his ADP and will easily outperform it, especially as a part of a quarterback by committee.