This fight should be extremely competitive. It’s a true 50-50, toss-up affair.
Geale and Barker are both smart fighters with tons of heart. They are both durable, and neither would seem to have enough power to stop the other early.
Each man knows what a win will do for his career and what a loss will do to set his career back. They both come into this battle determined to be the one who wants it more.
In an extremely competitive fight, I have to give an edge to the fighter with more world championship experience. Geale also has a lot more experience fighting 12 rounds.
I don’t expect Barker to be overawed by the situation. He’s fought in the A.C. before—and against a bigger star than Geale.
But Geale is the busier fighter, and I don’t think Barker has the power to slow him down. Instead, Barker will have to match his punch output.
That should give Geale the openings to pound Barker’s body and sap his strength as the fight wears on. I expect a very even fight until the last third of the bout, when Geale will pull away.
Geale by decision, 116-112.
But no matter who wins this fight, he needs to fight either Peter Quillin or Gennady Golovkin next. It's time to start consolidating the middleweight crown.