How might college football’s Top 10 look after September games are complete?
I’ve devised a fairly straightforward way to predict what will happen after the season’s first full month.
First, I consulted the 2013 preseason Coaches’ Poll. 50 teams received votes in this poll, and even accounting for major upsets, it’s likely that the top-10 teams on October 1 will come from this pool of teams.
Second, I looked at their schedules. I didn’t make any upsets; though this is unrealistic, it prevented me from creating off-the-wall scenarios. However, I do run down the games and how each team is likely to perform.
Third, using these predicted records, I re-ranked the teams based on how I think the polls would do it. The top 10 appear on this list. It’s that simple.
You won’t find many teams jumping others in the polls based on strength of schedule. Once the BCS standings come out this might happen more, but I don’t expect the human voters to shake things up on their own.
With that, here’s the top 10.