With all due respect to "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung's toolbox of skills and enormous heart, Jose "Scarface" Aldo is too quick and adept at avoiding takedowns to allow him to gain an advantage in their clash at UFC 163 in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.
Aldo's UFC featherweight title will be on the line, as will his pride as he takes on Jung in front of thousands of adoring fans in his native Brazil.
Perhaps Jung has a title reign in his future, but Aldo should win this fight by decision or possibly by KO. My original prediction was a decision win for Scarface, so I'll stick to that.
In a scan of the opinions of MMA experts across the web, most agree that Aldo will win, but the path to victory is debatable.
Zach G. Harris of Bleacher Report says:
While there should be no surprise if one man finishes the other, analysis leans toward a close decision for Aldo as the two look more to negate each other's strengths rather than aggressively impose their own.
No one would be shocked if Aldo finishes Jung, but I believe there would be a huge number of people in the MMA community that would be stunned if Jung stops Aldo.
According to a poll on Tapology.com, 87 percent of fans pick Aldo to win. Even more convincing is the fact that 76 percent predict he will win by KO. In contrast, of the 13 percent that favor Jung, only 21 percent of them see him winning by KO.
The predominant result predicted amongst those that see Jung dethroning Aldo is a submission. At the time this article was written, 60 percent of the fans that tabbed Jung as the winner believed The Korean Zombie will make Aldo tap out.
The speed advantage is so significantly in favor of the champion, Jung would seem to be digging his own grave by attempting to slug with Aldo. Harris and I agree on the outcome—though I don't think it will be close—but we differ in the way we see Jung's ability to control the fight's tempo.
Lee McGregor of the Camel Clutch Blog doesn't see the night ending well for Jung. He writes:
Jung has struggled against strikers that are far inferior to Aldo, including being knocked cold by George Roop. Jung has a strong chin and can take a fair amount of punishment, but Aldo is simply the heaviest hitter that he’s ever faced. I expect a beat down from the champion, culminating in quite possibly a knockout of the night bonus check. Jose Aldo via KO in Round Three.
It is hard to argue with any of the points McGregor makes in this passage. Though a KO win by Aldo is certainly possible, Jung's skill level and counter ability should force Aldo to be at least a little cautious. In addition to that, Aldo seemed to suffer from fatigue late in his fight with Frankie Edgar.
He may look to pace himself to maintain freshness. That strategy could also increase the chances of this fight going the distance.
Lastly, Scott Johnson of Kamikaze Overdrive MMA predicts a TKO win for Aldo. Here's the video where Johnson discusses the entire main card for UFC 163. The Aldo-Jung section begins around the 18:00 mark of the video.
Johnson points out Jung's tendency to leave his chin exposed during exchanges. It is a weakness I also made reference to in my prediction. Against Aldo, that bad habit could land The Korean Zombie on a highlight reel for all the wrong reasons.
While an Aldo win seems to be almost a given amongst those in the know, this is still a fight and anything can happen. Check out UFC 163 to see whose predictions are the most accurate.
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