Handicapping the Odds for Every Main Card Fight at UFC on Fox 8

Nate Lawson@NateLawsonCorrespondent IJuly 25, 2013

Handicapping the Odds for Every Main Card Fight at UFC on Fox 8

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    The UFC returns to free television this Saturday with UFC on Fox 8, and we are taking a look at the odds heading into the final card of July.

    The event features a flyweight title fight between champion Demetrious Johnson and top contender John Moraga, while the co-main event is a welterweight contest between contenders Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald.

    For those looking to get a bit more involved in the action, the betting lines for the main card fights are in, and we've got all the odds right here. 

    Find out where the value lies for this card as we handicap all four main card fights. 

    In advance, best of luck to everyone.

    *All odds courtesy of Bovada.

Jessica Andrade vs. Liz Carmouche

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    Odds: Andrade (+400) vs. Carmouche (-600)

    In her UFC debut, Liz Carmouche was a big underdog against Ronda Rousey. Now, she's a massive favorite against UFC rookie Jessica Andrade.

    Andrade is currently on a two-fight winning streak after earning back-to-back submission wins. And her 9-2 overall record is better than Carmouche's 8-3 record. 

    Meanwhile, Carmouche is 2-3 in her last five fights, including the loss to Rousey.

    Is Carmouche really worthy of such steep odds? 

    The numbers may be a bit bloated, as we've seen Carmouche lose quite a lot lately. But her losses came against top competition—she was defeated by Rousey, Sarah Kaufman and Marloes Coenen—and it'd be tough to pick against her here.

    Betting Line Assessment:

    The line may seem a bit off, considering Carmouche is coming off a disappointing loss and we haven't seen Andrade in the UFC. But the favorite should win this fight, and she'll probably prove herself worthy of that -600 line with an impressive performance. 


Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker

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    Odds: Lawler (-300) vs. Voelker (+230)

    Robbie Lawler is a pretty heavy favorite considering how inconsistent he's been, but in his return to the UFC, he stunned Josh Koscheck with a first-round technical knockout. That win no doubt factored into this betting line. 

    However, you'd have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time Lawler won consecutive fights. He is just 5-5 in his last 10. 

    Voelker, meanwhile, saw a three-fight winning streak cut short in his UFC debut against Patrick Cote at UFC 158. Cote defeated Voelker via unanimous decision. 

    Neither middleweight is a legitimate contender, and Lawler just barely snuck into the top 10 of the division after his last fight. The fighter nicknamed "Ruthless" should manage to win this one, but, again, his inconsistency is a major issue.

    Betting Line Assessment: 

    Lawler certainly should be the favorite in this fight, and his heavy hands make him an imminent threat—just ask Melvin Manhoef. But Lawler is not consistent enough to bank on, and his 3:1 status seems to be a bit generous. Meanwhile, Voelker hasn't really given anyone reason to believe he can compete with a guy like Lawler, though an upset here wouldn't be shocking. The line probably could be closer, but it could've been worse.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Rory MacDonald

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    Odds: Ellenberger (+190) vs. MacDonald (-240)

    Jake Ellenberger may be winning the hype war against Rory MacDonald, but he's the 2:1 underdog in this fight for good reason.

    MacDonald has been on an absolute tear in his past four fights, including his December win over B.J. Penn. His lone career loss came against Carlos Condit at UFC 115 in a fight that MacDonald was clearly winning. 

    Meanwhile, Ellenberger has displayed that he's a top welterweight, winning eight of his last 10 fights. However, losses to Martin Kampmann and Carlos Condit have kept him out of top contention. 

    MacDonald is a 24-year-old phenom who many expect to be champion one day. At 28 years of age, Ellenberger is probably in his prime, though he's yet to fight a welterweight at MacDonald's level. 

    Betting Line Assessment:

    Ellenberger's last two wins came against Nate Marquardt and Jay Hieron, so there's reason to be skeptical heading into UFC on Fox 8. MacDonald, on the other hand, is fresh off his win over Penn last year. This line is just about spot on, and there's plenty of value for MacDonald here, even if he's a 2.5:1 favorite. He'd be a nice play in a parlay. 

Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga

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    Odds: Johnson (-500) vs. Moraga (+350)

    Demetrious Johnson enters UFC on Fox 8 with a title defense under his belt, having defeated John Dodson in January, while Moraga enters the event as a relative unknown. 

    Moraga has fought just twice in the UFC, but he's made those outings count, earning back-to-back stoppage wins to extend his winning streak to seven.

    He isn't the most well-known fighter on this card, and that could explain why he's a 3.5:1 underdog heading into Saturday's card. 

    Johnson, meanwhile, has fought and defeated better competition during his undefeated run at flyweight, including wins over Dodson and Joseph Benavidez. 

    Moraga has a tall order ahead of him, and an upset here would be at least moderately shocking.

    Betting Line Assessment:

    Moraga just hasn't fought against guys at Johnson's level, while Johnson has fought and beat the best at flyweight. This is Johnson's fight to lose, and the betting line appropriately displays that. However, "Mighty Mouse" doesn't provide a ton of value, considering the 1:5 payout.