Let's review the last few weeks, looking at the facts.
Brett asks for his unconditional release from the Jets. This could happen at any time before or after the draft all the way up until he actually retires a Green Bay Packer.
Not long after this, Brett has a two-day meeting with Brad Childress of the Minnesota Vikings—the team at the top of his list this time last year. These are not the actions of someone set on retiring. Childress would never have flown to Mississippi if Brett had not indicated a desire to return.
I do not believe Childress left Favre's home under the impression Brett will remain retired. Brett will begin to rehab his torn biceps tendon, which he believes may heal without surgery, as a similar injury did earlier in his career.
Even Favre would not agree to play for the Packers' rival only to have his injury never allow him to see the field. The moment he inks the deal with Minnesota, he goes from hero to zero in Green Bay. They love Favre in Green Bay, but they really love their Packers.
At this point, the risk is not worth the reward to sign in May. Go "all-in" with the Vikings now, and your legendary status in Green Bay is tarnished forever. Favre will jump at the opportunity to embarrass the Green Bay front office but is much more careful in dealing with his fanbase.
There are no consequences to signing with Minnesota at a later date. You can bet he is studying their playbook in the meantime, which is probably all they would require of him if he signed yesterday.
Furthermore, there are no consequences to the Vikings if Brett signs later. They have two quarterbacks and one they believe should be pretty good. It may be to their advantage to play out the offseason with Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson believing there is a QB battle.
Childress is a smart coach. He is not getting into the situation the Redskins did with Jason Campbell. It was a calculated move and a risk on his part to suggest to his players that he still does not have the quarterback he wants. He will get him.
We just have to wait a little longer.
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