2013 Home Run Derby Contestants: Predicted Totals for Each Round of Competition

Benjamin KleinContributor IIIJuly 9, 2013

July 9, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; American League infielder Robinson Cano (24) of the New York Yankees hits during the 2012 Home Run Derby at Kauffman Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak/USA TODAY Sports via USA TODAY Sports
Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

The 2013 Home Run Derby field is nearly set, and this year’s All-Star competition is bound to send the New York faithful into pandemonium on July 15.

The official Twitter account of Major League Baseball announced the field Monday:

While there’s still one player who’s going to join the other seven, it’s pretty easy to see who the favorites are to win the showcase. Still, it’s not always the favorite who comes out on top. Chris Davis is the leader of the pack at the moment in terms of home run hitting capabilities. Will he win, though?

Even though it’s unclear who the fourth player on Robinson Cano’s squad is going to be—and that could play a massive role in determining the winner—here’s a prediction of how the Home Run Derby is going to play out. Each round has projected home run totals as well as a description of what’s going to happen.


Round 1

Player Team Round 1
Chris Davis Orioles 13
Prince Fielder Tigers 8
Bryce Harper Nationals 7
David Wright Mets 6
Robinson Cano Yankees 5
Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 5
Michael Cuddyer Rockies 2


Davis is going to show why he’s the home run leader at the All-Star break with an exciting performance in the opening round. The Orioles slugger already has 33 home runs on the season and will surely lead the Derby contestants after the first round of the competition. He should hit at least 10 home runs in the round.

Fielder and Harper will be the two best sluggers behind Davis in the first round, but neither will hit the 10-homer mark. Davis will hold a slim lead entering the second round. The last spot in the second round will be up for grabs, and it’s sure to be a close race.

Cano didn’t hit any home runs at the 2012 Derby, but he’ll get on the board this year with a couple of bombs. He and Gonzalez have similar power and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they tied at the conclusion of the first round. Cuddyer is easily the weakest of the bunch, and he’ll finish with the lowest total.

So, that leaves the hometown hero, Wright. Wright knows Citi Field better than any of the other contenders, and the crowd is sure to be roaring when he steps up to the plate. He will please the crowd with enough home runs to avoid elimination and make it to the second round. 


Round 2

Player Team Round 1 Round 2 Subtotal
Chris Davis Orioles  13  7 20
Bryce Harper Nationals 7 11 18
Prince Fielder Tigers  8 8 16
David Wright Mets 6 7 13


With just four contenders remaining, this is where the Derby is going to get interesting. The two sluggers with the most combined home runs through the first two rounds will advance to the final, so as Round 2 begins, Davis and Fielder will have the best shot at moving on.

Davis, Fielder and Wright will be consistent in the second round, hitting around seven or eight bombs apiece. Since Davis already had 13 from the first, he will secure a berth in the final round. Wright will get bounced, so the last spot will go to Fielder or Harper.

Fielder will finish the first two rounds with 16 total home runs, hitting eight in each. Harper, who entered the second round in third place, will jump ahead of the Tigers first baseman with a big round. Harper will get hot and launch 11 balls into the stands at Citi Field, advancing to the finals while Fielder is ousted. 



Player Team Round 1 Round 2 Finals Total
Chris Davis Orioles  13  7 7 27
Bryce Harper Nationals  11 5 23


The Beltway Series. Orioles vs. Nationals. Chris Davis vs. Bryce Harper.

Whichever star can hit more home runs in the final round of the competition will be crowned the 2013 Home Run Derby champion. Keep in mind that the home run totals are reset entering the head-to-head matchup. So, will it be Davis or Harper who hoists the trophy?

Both players are definitely going to be tired at this point. It’s common for sluggers to get fatigued since they exert so much energy in such a long batting practice setup. As a result, don’t expect any crazy performances from Davis or Harper in the finals.

Davis will start off cold and fail to hit many bombs early. He will catch fire late, though, and finish with seven home runs in the round for a total of 27. Harper will fail to match seven, as he’ll only be able to hit five out of the park.

Davis, the league leader in home runs, will win the Home Run Derby in 2013.