Who has the most effective curveball? Taking all the curveballs together, the average outcomes in terms of Home Runs allowed, Swings and Whiffs, B:CS ratio were calculated.
First, the benchmarks - league averages.
Swing Rate 40.8%
Whiff Rate 25.3 %
B:CS 2.1:1
HR% 4.6%
So, if you're better than average on all these, you throw strikes, get hitters to swing and miss, and don't give up homers.
Who makes the cut? Ten pitchers. Some superstars, some not. Here is their PFX chart - I'm using the absolute value of pfx_x to show lefties and righties together.
Here are the numbers for each pitcher
| name | thrown | HR% | Swings% | Whiff% | B:CS | mph | pfx_x | pfx_z | spindir | spinrate |
| Ruddy Lugo | 156 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 28.2% | 1.5 | 75.5 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 226.6 | 1093.7 |
| Juan Gutierrez | 38 | 0.0% | 47.4% | 27.8% | 1.5 | 76.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 219.7 | 1009.8 |
| Pedro Martinez | 42 | 0.0% | 54.8% | 39.1% | 1.7 | 71.1 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 228.6 | 990.7 |
| Justin Germano | 306 | 0.3% | 42.5% | 26.2% | 1.4 | 68.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 226.3 | 977.2 |
| Roy Halladay | 192 | 0.0% | 42.2% | 39.5% | 1.9 | 77.8 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 244.9 | 865.3 |
| Bobby Seay | 105 | 0.0% | 41.0% | 34.9% | 1.3 | 76.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 115.3 | 802.7 |
| Ben Sheets | 144 | 0.0% | 45.1% | 26.2% | 1.9 | 80.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 225.8 | 694.6 |
| Eric O'Flaherty | 22 | 0.0% | 40.9% | 44.4% | 1.2 | 80.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 153.5 | 688.5 |
| Manny Parra | 70 | 0.0% | 54.3% | 31.6% | 1.5 | 76.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 144.7 | 627.3 |
| Victor Santos | 22 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 30.0% | 1.4 | 76.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 220.9 | 601.1 |
Wednesday night I'll post on Impressive Curves. Hill and Zito come to mind.
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4 months ago
Hi Harry,
This is interesting data. Where are you finding this? Please post it on my bulletin board when you can.
Thanks,
Jarek
4 months ago
O'Flaherty throws a curveball?
Hill and Zito do come to mind on impressive. I'd throw in Bedard, Hughes, Lincecum, McClung as well.
4 months ago
Doug Davis has a pretty-looking curveball when he throws it.
4 months ago
O'Flaherty's pitch may be a slider - I have to analyze him individually to confirm.
All the data comes via MLB.com
I'll have my post on "impressive" curves up late tonight
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