Wimbledon 2013: Updated Quarterfinal Odds and Predictions

Jeff Cohn@jeff_cohnCorrespondent IIIJuly 1, 2013

Wimbledon 2013: Updated Quarterfinal Odds and Predictions

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    The quarterfinal matchups are now set for the 2013 Wimbledon Championships.

    Surely the first week of the tournament shocked many spectators and fans, and we don't know what to expect for the remainder.

    With only three potential matches to go in order for the champions to be determined on either side, it is imperative that we analyze the odds of each player taking home the winner's trophy.

    I generally make very bold predictions, but is there a such thing as a bold prediction at this year's Wimbledon?

    Note: This list goes in order of ascending odds. The women's odds are listed first—then the men's odds follow.

Kirsten Flipkens

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    Odds of Winning It All: 85-1 

    Difficulty of Path: 9.9/10

    In the quarterfinals, she faces the only woman left in the draw that has won Wimbledon before, Petra Kvitova. Obviously Agnieszka Radwanska and Marion Bartoli are not far behind, having made the final in the past. Though Flipkens is ranked higher than Sabine Lisicki and Kaia Kanepi, who reside in the top half of the draw, she is definitely the least successful player of the bunch.   


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If she keeps up her mentality and momentum, there is a very small chance for her to score another win or two.

    Remember, she is ranked at an all-time high (finally in the top 20), has just made her first major quarterfinal and has not dropped a set all tournament.

    She has a great backhand slice that can give Kvitova's flat backhand some trouble, and Sloane Stephens and Marion Bartoli could lose to anybody when having a bad day, but Flipkens should not be winning the tournament.  

Kaia Kanepi

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    Odds of Winning It All: 80-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 9/10

    She faces giant-killer (or Serena's killer this week) Sabine Lisicki next. The German's huge serve and powerful groundstrokes should prove to be too much for Kanepi. Should she pull off a magical win based simply on the fact that underdogs who score big upsets generally lose in their next round, she would play Li Na or Agnieszka Radwanska—both top-10 players.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: Kanepi looked down and out in her first two matches and was on the brink of defeat but somehow found a way and kept her dreams alive. This is now her fifth major quarterfinal, and perhaps it could be time for her to make her first venture past that stage. She must play without fear and be more consistent than her opponent.

    This can be done in the quarterfinals against Lisicki and in a potential semifinal match against Li Na.

    However, Radwanska will always be more consistent than Kanepi, so she should pray for a minor upset there.

Sloane Stephens

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    Odds of Winning It All: 45-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 8/10

    She plays Marion Bartoli next, a player who has not been talked about much recently. Bartoli's success has come out of nowhere, much like Flipken's.

    Obviously that match is winnable and most oddsmakers would put Stephens as the favorite there, but I have my doubts. Kirsten Flipkens would be an easy semifinal opponent for Stephens, though she will almost definitely have to go through Petra Kvitova.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: Stephens is keeping the tennis American dream alive, as she is the only one remaining in either draw. If she plays smart tennis and cuts down on the unforced errors, she can outlast Bartoli and Kvitova.

    Radwanska and Li Na would be tough for her to overcome, so if they both lose prior to the final, count on the American to win.  

Agnieszka Radwanska

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    Odds of Winning It All: 25-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 8/10

    Being the defending runner-up at SW19, maybe her odds could have been a tad higher.

    Nevertheless, she has the toughest quarterfinal opponent even though she is the highest-ranked player left. Li Na is a little bit more experienced and successful as of late, though this match will almost certainly go the distance.

    Sabine Lisicki will likely be waiting for a potentially weary Radwanska, though Kvitova is the only player that should beat the Polish player in the final.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If she keeps hitting junk balls and moving well, there is no telling how far she can go.

    She has risen to the top of the women's game by being different and consistent. Nobody should count her out just yet, though the champion on the women's side will definitely surprise us.  

Marion Bartoli

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    Odds of Winning It All: 18-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 6/10

    Playing a somewhat inexperienced Sloane Stephens in the quarterfinals stage is a matchup that I'm sure Bartoli can live with. She is the better grass-court player and has not been troubled much at all at Wimbledon.

    Flipkens in the semis would be a blessing, but she will have to overcome Kvitova, and she is the toughest semifinal opponent in my eyes.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If Bartoli sticks to her game and feels comfortable with her movement and range, she may just be the 2013 champion and win her first Grand Slam tournament.

    Her successes have come in and out throughout her career, but these two weeks have been great for her. I think the winner of the semifinal match between Bartoli (should she even beat Stephens) and Kvitova will go on to win the whole tournament.

Li Na

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    Odds of Winning It All: 7-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 6.5/10

    Clearly her quarterfinal opponent is the toughest and highest-ranked possibility, but Li Na is all business on the court. If she has to participate in a rematch of the 2011 Wimbledon showdown against Sabine Lisicki, the result will be unpredictable yet entertaining. She might also have to face Bartoli or Kvitova in the final.

    This is clearly a tough road for her, even though she is the only major title-holder in the top half.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If she has a few good days in a row, and serves well while finishing points with her backhand, she can be dangerous. Her forehand is usually the shot that falls apart, so she should practice it a lot prior to her big matches.

Sabine Lisicki

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    Odds of Winning It All: 5-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 5/10

    This German player knows no limits; she ended Serena Williams' 34-match winning streak in the fourth round. She has done well at Wimbledon before and was a dangerous floater up until this point. Kaia Kanepi in the next round will be a walk in the park, though Li Na and Agnieszka Radwanska can both irritate her and her game on a quick surface. 


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: Lisicki can win it all by serving unbelievably well and running down every single ball possible. Her never-say-die attitude and history at Wimbledon make her mentally tougher than most of her opponents. She needs to dictate play in order to keep the good results coming.

Petra Kvitova

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    Odds of Winning It All: 4-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 3/10

    Kirsten Flipkens should be an easy one for Kvitova, though the lefty matchup could be a small problem. She is way better than Sloane Stephens at the moment, and Bartoli has been nowhere to be seen until arriving at the All England Club.


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: Kvitova can add a second Wimbledon trophy to her name if she does not come out playing flat or erratically. She must use her forehand to move opponents around the court and her cross-court backhand to finish the points.

    I put my money on her to win the championship.

Lukasz Kubot

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    Odds of Winning It All: 100-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 9.9/10

    Though the bottom half of the draw is undoubtedly easier than the top half, Kubot will always have a tougher path because of his level compared to the competition. He plays fellow countryman, Jerzy Janowicz, which is a great sight for Poland and a nightmare for the man himself.

    He would probably have to play Andy Murray in the semis anyways.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: There is no chance that Kubot wins the championship.

    He could certainly surprise Janowicz and hope to play Fernando Verdasco in the semifinals. However, his potential final opponent would be one of the following athletes—Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Juan Martin del Potro. That is a losing situation no matter which way you look at it.  

Fernando Verdasco

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    Odds of Winning It All: 45-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 8/10

    Considering he has to play the second-best player in the world in the next round, I'd say his path is pretty difficult. Andy Murray is the home-crowd favorite, though Verdasco has given him a little bit of trouble in the past. Lukasz Kubot in the semifinals is very unlikely, but Verdasco has been playing well enough to knock out Jerzy Janowicz. 


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If he keeps his serve and forehand going he can, without a doubt, upset Andy Murray.

    He often gets off to a slow start but has been impeccable this tournament, only dropping one set in four matches. This one should be an entertaining match, but should Verdasco win it, his confidence could help him to reach the final.

    He is one of the few players that routinely challenges Novak Djokovic (Djokovic leads their head-to-head 6-4, though one of those wins of his was at the Hopman Cup, which really should not count). This is the Spaniard's first Wimbledon quarterfinal, and he is finally getting his ranking back up again to where it should be.  

Juan Martin Del Potro

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    Odds of Winning It All: 35-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 7.5/10

    He has to play the dogged David Ferrer next, though the Spaniard has not been playing his best tennis by any means this fortnight. He can score a berth in the semifinals, and if Tomas Berdych knocks out Novak Djokovic, Delpo's chances of finding his way to the final will skyrocket.

    He still would not have much of a chance against Andy Murray in the final.  


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: He could only win the entire tournament by upsetting Ferrer and then hoping to play only one of the top two players. He is the lowest seed in the tougher half of the men's draw, and this will be a nearly impossible feat for him to achieve.

    He has the serve, forehand and court mobility to upset at least one star. He has been in good form and has yet to drop a set, but that statistic might change shortly.

Tomas Berdych

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    Odds of Winning It All: 33-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 7/10

    Berdych, after enjoying a decent run so far, now has to play the No. 1 player in the world, Novak Djokovic.

    Though the only time the two of them played each other at Wimbledon the Czech player won in straight sets, the result may be much different this time around. Berdych will have some confidence in the fact that he won their most recent meeting in Rome this year, even though he was close to losing in straights.  

    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If he ignores his 2-13 head-to-head record with Nole and goes out with guns blazing, he can maybe pull off the unthinkable.

    A big problem for Berdych is that he also has losing records to his potential semifinal opponents. Should he make it to the final (somehow), he could certainly take out Andy Murray, as he has a winning career record against the Scot.

David Ferrer

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    Odds of Winning It All: 11-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 9/10

    Ferrer's path is very, very difficult, but it's nothing he can't handle or hasn't handled in the past.

    His quarterfinal opponent, del Potro, has not beaten him in over four years. I don't think Ferrer will bow out in that match.

    However, he does have a great deal of difficulty playing Novak Djokovic. It is not impossible for him to earn an upset there, but it is tough to think he would pull off two in a row.  

    Ferrer practices and trains quite often with Andy Murray and knows how to play him on his home court, so the odds of him winning in this final are much higher than they were against Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros. 


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If he gets out of the temporary slump he's currently in (even though he keeps winning), he has a chance to win the title.

    The only man that really stands in his path in a big way is Djokovic, but anything is possible. It will take much energy and strength for Ferrer to beat the Serbian.

Jerzy Janowicz

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    Odds of Winning It All: 8-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 5/10

    The Polish player has accomplished a lot since his decent run at Wimbledon last year, when he reached the third round and lost in five sets to Florian Mayer.

    He is now known as a force and top player, though he must feel he still has more to prove to the tennis world. 

    He should be penciled in the semifinal slot so long as he is feeling healthy. I say this because Lukasz Kubot does not have anything to challenge Janowicz with other than his serve. Jerzy beat Andy Murray at the Paris ATP1000 event last year after facing a match point, so he could upset the Scottish player. But winning in the final would be his toughest task to date. 


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If he holds serve comfortably and keeps applying pressure on opponents by smacking returns and hitting more winners than unforced errors, he can beat anybody on any day.

    I think his chances are higher than Ferrer's because he is in an easier part of the draw and only has one seeded player to potentially face (Murray). Ferrer has a tough quarterfinal, whereas Janowicz may not be as intimidated by the 31-year-old on the other side of the net.   

Novak Djokovic

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    Odds of Winning It All: 3-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 3/10

    His path is difficult, but he is still the favorite up until the final—and even in the final in many people's eyes.

    He should be happy to seek revenge on Tomas Berdych for his semifinal exit at Wimbledon three years ago. Del Potro could prove trouble for Nole if he could magically beat David Ferrer in the prior round.

    So, to make the final, Djokovic has to likely play two players who have only beaten him six times combined.


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: If he keeps up the same mentality he had when winning his elusive, prestigious Wimbledon title a couple years ago, he will be a two-time champion. Andy Murray, Fernando Verdasco or Jerzy Janowicz in the final could be dangerous on grass.

Andy Murray

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    Odds of Winning It All: 2-1  

    Difficulty of Path: 2.5/10

    Murray has a dream road to the final even though he has lost to the likes of Fernando Verdasco and Jerzy Janowicz in important tournaments before.

    David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic are worthy contenders against Murray in the final, while del Potro has not been historically successful in their meetings. Murray had strong showings against Djokovic in big tournaments at the tail end of 2012, taking him out at the Olympics (at the Wimbledon site) and the U.S. Open. He also had match points to take the Shanghai title home. 


    Could Win Championship Trophy If: Djokovic displayed a dominant style of play at the Australian Open, but he surely feels less comfortable in England. If Murray can ignore the whole "Britain will not have a British champion at Wimbledon" idea that has been thrown at him his whole career while getting the crowd behind him, there may just be an argument for the next rivalry on the ATP tour.