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Jose Fernandez leads the Marlins pitching staff with four wins. Will he (or any other Marlin) get to 10 wins before he is shut down when he reaches his 150-170 innings threshold?
Up until Jose Fernandez's gem against the Padres on Monday, it looked like the Marlins would go through their first full season without a 10-game winner.
Actually, that's still in the realm of possibility.
The Marlins intend to limit Fernandez’s innings this season to no more than 170, according to the Miami Herald, and he's already at 92 2/3 innings despite averaging just 89.1 pitches this season. Halfway through the season, Fernandez owns a 5-4 record, has a 2.72 ERA and has struck out 94 helpless batters.
Frankly, Fernandez is the Marlins best bet to reach 10 wins.
Ricky Nolasco has no chance at double-digit wins with the Marlins because he will be traded. There's a better chance owner Jeffrey Loria will sell the Marlins than for Nolasco to stay in Miami for the rest of this season.
The best way for Fernandez to hit double figures in wins is to string a couple of wins in a row. However, Fernandez has only won back-to-back starts once this season, May 4 against the Philadelphia Phillies and May 10 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. If Fernandez falters, it's highly unlikely Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler and Henderson Alvarez are up to the challenge. This leaves Jacob Turner and Nate Eovaldi as the only candidates with the slim shot at 10 wins.
As stated earlier, Turner and Eovaldi recently rejoined the Marlins. With half the season to go, Turner and Eovaldi are expected to make about 17 more starts. This means one or both of them would have to pick up the win in half of the starts. Not impossible, but the odds aren't good, either.
The good news, though, is that both pitchers have been very effective.
"This is a totally different guy than we saw in spring training," Redmond told the Associated Press of Turner's latest start, a complete-game win against the Padres on Saturday. "He went down to the minor leagues and worked on things he needed to work on and, wow, this guy has come back to the big leagues and has been outstanding."
Hey, it could happen.
But if not, the Marlins would join the following inglorious list:
Teams without a 10-game winner since 1995
2012: Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
2011: Minnesota Twins
2010: Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
2009: Washington Nationals
2008: Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners
2007: Washington Nationals
2005: Kansas City Royals
2004: Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
2003: Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers
2002: Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1999: Montreal Expos, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1997: Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics
1996: Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies
1995: St. Louis Cardinals