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Odds of Each Unsigned 1st Round MLB Draft Pick Reaching a Deal

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Odds of Each Unsigned 1st Round MLB Draft Pick Reaching a Deal
Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Will the Rays be able to sign Ryne Stanek?

 

Of the 33 players selected in the first round of the 2013 First-Year Player Draft on June 6, all but six have signed with the respective teams that selected them.

Although the new Collective Bargaining Agreement encourages players to sign quickly and begin a professional career, all draftees technically have until July 12 to agree to terms. And of the unsigned players from this year’s class, there may be several who will carry negotiations down to the wire.

The most notable player is obviously Kris Bryant, who was selected by the Cubs with the No. 2 overall pick. Now that both Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray have signed with their respective drafting organizations, Bryant and the Cubs seem likely to reach an agreement in the near future.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to say whether the Rays will be able to afford right-hander Ryne Stanek, who was unexpectedly still on the board at No. 29.

Here’s a breakdown of the remaining unsigned draft picks from the first-round and whether they will sign before the deadline.

 

Will the Cubs reach an agreement with Kris Bryant before the July 12 deadline?

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2. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Slot: $6.7084 million

The Cubs have signed all of their draft picks from the first 10 rounds except for Bryant, who they selected at No. 2 overall. Even though he’s a Scott Boras client, the organization would not have taken a risk on a player with serious signability concerns.

Considering that Mark Appel, the No. 1 overall pick, netted an below-slot bonus of $6.35 million—and is also represented by Boras—as well as the fact that the Cubs have already signed some of their other picks for above-slot, Bryant stands to receive somewhere around $6 million. The only question is whether he’ll hold out until the mid-July signing deadline.

 

Chances of Signing: 85%

 

 

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

6. Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins

Slot: $3.5165 million

Prior to North Carolina’s elimination from the College World Series last week, Moran told Josh Thompson of Lohud.com that he “doesn’t foresee any type of long negotiation.” The third baseman emerged as an attractive option to every organization with a top-five pick this year due to his lack of signability concerns and perceived willingness to take a below-slot bonus.

The assigned slot value for the No. 6 pick is $3.5165 million, though it’s unlikely Moran will receive that full amount considering that the Marlins have also yet to sign supplemental first-rounder Matt Krook. Therefore, the organization will likely ink Moran for around $2.7 million to $3 million with enough remaining cash to still sign Krook. 

 

Chances of Signing: 95%

 

 

9. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Slot: $3.0296 million

The Pirates made a haul on Day One of the draft, selecting three high-ceiling prep players in outfielder Austin Meadows (No. 9), catcher Reese McGuire (No. 14) and left-hander Blake Taylor (No. 51). After saving $200K by signing McGuire at slightly below-slot value, the organization saved an additional $315K with Taylor.

Due to the overlap of the College World Series and the draft, the Pirates may be waiting to sign outfielder JaCoby Jones (third round; LSU) and shortstop Adam Frazier (sixth round; Mississippi State) before making a final offer to Meadows. With a commitment to Clemson to fall back on, Meadows stands to receive near the full-slot value.

 

Chances of Signing: 85%

 

 

10. Phil Bickford, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Slot: $2.9214 million

Even though the Blue Jays haven’t signed the better college pitchers they selected in the first 10 rounds, they’ve already saved a large portion of their bonus pool through below-slot deals. And they’ll need every bit of it if they expect to sign prep right-handers Phil Bickford (No. 10 overall) and Clinton Hollon (No. 47).

Courtesy of Steve Fiorindo (BullpenBanter.com)

While the recommended value for the No. 10 pick is $2.9214 million, Bickford is one of the few early-first-round selections that is capable of commanding an above-slot bonus. However, given the Blue Jays willingness to gamble on the right-hander with their first pick, one would assume that they are prepared for such a scenario.

 

Chances of Signing: 70%

 

 

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

13. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres

Slot: $2.678 million

With Mississippi State currently battling for a College World Series title—they lost the best-of-three series opener on Monday night—Renfroe will wait until the end of the season to sign with the Padres.

And because the organization has already signed all of their other picks from the first 10 rounds, they seemingly will have a deal in place for Renfroe for around $2.5 million to $2.7 million.

 

Chances of Signing: 95%

 

 

29. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Slot: $1.7583 million

Will the Rays sign Ryne Stanek?

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The Rays drafted high school players with all but one of their five picks within the first four rounds, with Stanek being the lone college player selected. Regarded as one of the better college pitchers in the class despite an inconsistent 2013 season, the Arkansas right-hander fell into the Rays’ open arms at No. 29 overall. However, it also cost him a lot of money.

The organization may not be able to offer him more than $1.8 million, so if Stanek wants more than slot value, he may be better off returning for his senior season with the hope of improving his draft stock. That being said, I think he’ll hold out until the mid-July deadline before signing and beginning his professional career.

 

Chances of Signing: 60%

 

 

32. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Slot: $1.6771 million

The Yankees made the most of their three first-round picks this year by selecting third baseman Eric Jagielo (No. 26), outfielder Aaron Judge (No. 32) and left-hander Ian Clarkin (no. 33).

Having already signed both Jagielo and Clarkin for slot value, the organization has some extra money to throw Judge’s way, if need be. He should receive at least the assigned slot value of $1.6771 million, but no more than $1.85.

 

Chances of Signing: 70%

 

*All draft info courtesy of Baseball America's 2013 Draft Database

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