Breaking Down Every Seattle Mariner's Odds of Being Moved at the Trade Deadline

Todd Pheifer@tpheiferAnalyst IIIJune 18, 2013

Breaking Down Every Seattle Mariner's Odds of Being Moved at the Trade Deadline

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    Should the Seattle Mariners make a deal at the trade deadline? Ah, the yearly question.

    Are the Mariners “contenders” or “pretenders?” At the moment, that is pretty easy. Pretenders. In fact, it is fair to suggest that the Mariners are not even pretending. They are just mediocre.

    Sure, there have been some great individual performances, but overall this squad just hasn’t put it together consistently throughout the season. Maybe they will get it together later in the summer, but that may be too late.

    In the meantime, the trade deadline will start to loom on the horizon, and this team will need to make some decisions. Are they going to make trades for the future, and if so, will the future ever become the present?

    With that in mind, here are the odds of each member of the Seattle Mariners getting traded at the deadline.

Not Going to Happen

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    Players on This List:

    Felix Hernandez

    It seems like every year there is some story about how much sense it makes for the Seattle Mariners to trade Felix Hernandez. After all, how dare a team as lowly as the Mariners retain a genuine star?

    Don't the Mariners understand that baseball has to maintain their ridiculous economic structure with zero accountability?

    Doesn't Seattle get that baseball has absolutely no interest in competitive balance?

    I digress. Perhaps now that the Mariners have signed King Felix to a mega-extension, people will stop writing these articles. Hernandez isn't going anywhere. He is happy in the Pacific Northwest.

    Write a trade deadline article about someone else.

    Odds: A Gazillion-to-1

Most Likely Not Going to Happen

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    Players on This List:

    Kyle Seager

    Mike Zunino

    There are rumblings in the Seattle area that the plan put in place by general manager Jack Zduriencik is not exactly working. In theory it sounded good to rebuild a team from the ground up by developing in-house talent. However, the fruit of that labor has yet bear a substantial harvest.

    There are a couple of players that have worked out, and they are most likely on a short list of athletes that the Mariners would be hesitant to trade. Kyle Seager is having one of the better offensive years for the Mariners, particularly amongst the young hitters.

    Then there Mike Zunino. He just arrived in Seattle, and the Mariners will probably want to see what he can do. In addition, the struggles of Jesus Montero mean that the M's may be relying on Zunino even more over the next few years. Translation? Trading either of these guys is unlikely.

    Odds: 100-1

Won’t Happen, Even If Desired by Some Fans

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    Players on This List:

    Aaron Harang

    Brendan Ryan

    When it comes to trade value, you start to get into a gray area where there are players that fit into a lot of different categories. Some just do not have a lot of value on the open market, while others are simply not having a good year.

    Two players stand out in that category. The first is starting pitcher Aaron Harang. You could argue that Harang is a veteran stopgap pitcher, but he hasn't been all that effective in stopping opposing batters this season. He did pitch an absolute gem on June 11, but overall the performance has not been great.

    The other culprit is veteran shortstop Brendan Ryan. Despite a great defensive presence, Ryan continues to be an offensive liability in the lineup.

    These guys will probably stay in Seattle, mostly because other teams probably will not want them.

    Odds: 40-1

Not Worth the Return

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    Players on This List:

    Henry Blanco

    Carter Capps

    Danny Farquhar

    Charlie Furbush

    Alex Liddi

    Yoervis Medina

    Michael Saunders

    Carlos Triunfel

    At the risk of lumping a bunch of guys into the same category, this list does just that. This list represents players that are good and may be very good in the next couple of years. The problem is that they aren't great right now.

    What that means is that the Mariners aren't anxious to get rid of them, particularly when you are talking about effective relievers such as Carter Capps. At the same time, other teams aren't going to surrender a lot in order to get access to one of these players.

    Therefore, they will probably stay put only because a transaction would likely include players of similar value. Why make a deal when you get a similar player in return?

    Odds: 30-1

Some Value, but Not a Lot

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    Players on This List:

    Jason Bay

    Blake Beavan

    Jeremy Bonderman

    Endy Chavez

    Joe Saunders

    This group of players represents the type of talent that may be intriguing to another club, depending on their situation. Bay, Bonderman, Chavez and Saunders represent those "veteran" pieces that might be appealing to a contending club that is looking for a player who can give their bench a boost.

    Beavan is in this group because he is a younger pitcher who still has the potential to turn things around. Though he is not having a great year, another club might see him as the type of player who could reach his potential if he were to experience a change of scenery.

    Odds: 20-1

Shouldn’t Happen, but Might Anyway

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    Players on This List:

    Hisashi Iwakuma

    Tom Wilhelmsen

    There are a couple of different ways to look at players like Iwakuma and Wilhelmsen. Someone like Iwakuma is a having a fantastic year, which means that his trade value may never be higher. A contending team with a pitching shortage might be all over a player like Iwakuma, and they might be willing to give up some quality prospects.

    At the same time, wouldn't that feed into the perpetual rebuilding mentality that has plagued the Mariners in the last few years and arguably kept them in their mediocre state?

    A couple of weeks ago, you might have put Wilhelmsen in the same category. With Carter Capps waiting in the wings, perhaps the Mariners move "the Bartender" and maximize trade value. Now that Wilhelmsen has been struggling, his trade value is probably slipping. If he pulls it together, perhaps he becomes intriguing again.

    Odds: 15-1

Could Happen, at the Right Price

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    Players on This List:

    Kendrys Morales

    Michael Morse

    Raul Ibanez

    Oliver Perez

    This group of players may be the most marketable. All of them are having good seasons, and all of them represent the type of players that might be available for a reasonable price.

    Of course, there is also the issue of re-signing these types of players. Kendrys Morales, in particular, may be a particularly expensive free agent. Therefore, teams would have to decide whether or not they were interested in a rental situation.

    Odds: 8-1

Really Hard to Tell

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    Players on This List:

    Nick Franklin

    Would the Mariners think about trading Nick Franklin? They might.

    Again, there are two schools of thought here. Franklin has done well since being promoted to the big club, which may make him appealing to other teams that have now been able to see him perform. There are other shortstops and second basemen in the farm system, which may make Franklin a valuable trade commodity.

    Then again, why trade away a guy who is playing well at the major league level? Isn't that sort of the point? You draft a guy, put him through the system, promote him and hope it works out.

    So far, so good on Franklin. Trade him? Or keep him? Time will tell. 

    Odds: Pick ‘em