The Spurs have three things going for them: confident outside shooters, a balanced scoring attack and a been-there-done-that attitude. Those factors will not change tonight and are what will power San Antonio to a 3-1 series lead.
The Spurs’ three-point barrage in Game 3 was not a mirage. Should you expect San Antonio to drill double-digit three-pointers again in Game 4? Perhaps not. But if given the same looks the Heat afforded the Spurs Tuesday night, San Antonio will burn them again—Danny Green’s 50 percent three-point shooting in the playoffs proves that.
San Antonio has also found multiple ways to hurt Miami on the offensive end. In Game 1, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan led the way with a combined 41 points. Green, Gary Neal and Kawhi Leonard emerged in Game 3, totaling 65 points between the three of them.
Right now, almost every Spurs player is a threat to score, and accordingly, the Heat cannot afford to overcommit to any single shooter out of fear of leaving someone open. The advantage for San Antonio here is that Miami’s defense has become stretched too far and put in awkward positions, unable to trap the Spurs as they did in Game 2.
Finally, the experience the Spurs can lean on is crucial. Parker, Duncan and Manu Ginobili have combined to win four NBA Championships, and though this series marks the third-straight Finals appearance for Miami’s “Big 3,” San Antonio has the edge in being able to put teams away that are bouncing against the ropes.
The question now is: will the Heat pick themselves up off the mat, or will the Spurs win Round 4?