The odds are apparently in Tiger Woods' favor at the 2013 U.S. Open—Bovada has him at 5-1—but the smart money says stay away from Woods at Merion Golf Club this weekend.
Despite being the consensus favorite to win his fourth U.S. Open championship, there are a handful of factors and numbers that say otherwise.
For one, Woods hasn't won a major in five years, the last being that memorable 2008 U.S. Open victory at Torrey Pines.
As we've seen in the past, to no surprise, Woods usually has success on courses he's familiar with, which doesn't bode well for him at Merion—a course he's never played a tournament at.
Also going against Woods is that he enters the Open coming off of his worst performance of the 2013 season.
While the 37-year-old has won three of the last five tournaments he's entered (WGC-Cadillac Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship), it's his play at the Memorial Tournament that should have Tiger fans bothered.
Woods completed the Memorial tied for 65th, at plus-eight for the tournament. His dismal performance was highlighted by a score of 79 in the third round—a round in which he posted the worst-ever nine-hole score of his illustrious career (44), according to ESPN.com's Bob Harig.
ESPN Stats & Info highlights Woods' terrible play at the Memorial:
Tiger Woods shot a 296 at the Memorial, his 2nd-worst score in any 4-round event (shot 298 at 2010 WGC Bridgestone)— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 2, 2013
Still searching for the biggest reason I don't like Woods to win the 2013 U.S. Open?
Let's talk accuracy off the tee.
PGATour.com tells us that Woods ranks 75th on the tour in driving accuracy percentage, coming in with a 61.22 percent mark, which isn't going to cut it at a course like Merion.
Merion has some of the deepest roughs these players will ever see, implies SwingFix instructor Bernard Sheridan (via Golf Channel), and with the impending rain that's supposed to hit the Philadelphia area on Thursday, per The Weather Channel, Woods will have to be precise with his drives.
If you don't believe me, take a look at what the Golf Channel's Kelly Tilghman had to say about the rough:
Rough at Merion is big talking point. Heavy & they're still fertilizing it. Rory McIlroy hit ball in yesterday, couldn't find it— Kelly Tilghman (@KellyTilghmanGC) June 5, 2013
Ultimately, the nasty weather combined with the deadly rough at Merion will play the biggest factor in Woods missing out on his 15th career major championship.
Woods would certainly be making a statement if he were able to conquer this course this weekend, especially with it being the first time he's ever played a full tournament at Merion.
But mark my words, ladies and gentleman.
Tiger Woods isn't your 2013 U.S. Open champion.
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