The Effects of the Officials in Super Bowl XL Using Win Probabilities

ed a 54-yard field goal to end the half.

Without the holding call, the field goal would have been 44 yards; then-kicker Josh Brown has made six percent more 40-yard field goals than 50-yarders in his career.

Fifth penalty—third quarter, 4:37 left, false start: The most insignificant penalty by Seattle, the Seahawks went three-and-out and punted. Still, Seattle had a 13-yard pass play on third-and-15, which would have been a first down if not for the false start penalty.

Sixth penalty—fourth quarter, 12:08 left, offensive holding: This, on the other hand, was huge. After an 18-yard pass to Jerramy Stevens that ended up on the Steelers’ one-yard-line, the officials called tackle Sean Locklear for holding. The play dropped the Seahawks to the PIT 29 facing a first-and-20, and their win probability fell 17 points.

Two plays later, on third-and-18, Matt Hasselbeck was intercepted by Ike Taylor. Seven points came off the board, and the Seahawks ended with a turnover just outside the red zone.

Seventh penalty—fourth quarter, 10:46 left, low block: On the interception return, Hasselbeck was called for a 15-yard low block penalty. The Director of Officiating for the NFL—Mike Pereira—even said that “the call was not correct” and “should not have been made.”

Nevertheless, the Steelers got the ball on their 44-yard-line and scored on an Antwaan Randle El touchdown pass to Hines Ward.

Although the argument could be made that the Steelers would not have attempted such a trick play on their own 42 (the play occurred 15 yards ahead, on the SEA 43), Hines Ward was so far ahead of his defender that he would have run the extra 15 yards to the end zone.

Adding up all of the effects on the score of each penalty—an extra three points for the first penalty, four for the second call, three for the third, none for the fourth or fifth (maybe Brown misses the 44-yarder), seven for the sixth, and none for the last call—the Seahawks effectively lost 17 or 20 points due to penalties alone.

That would have made the final score 27-20 in favor of Seattle.

The Steelers, on the other hand, lost no points from penalties—two false start calls came on the same three-and-out (and we don’t know if Pittsburgh would go another 70 or 80 yards to score a touchdown if there were no false starts called), and they scored a touchdown on the drive in which a pass interference call occurred.

Would the Seahawks have won Super Bowl XL without the detriments of their seven penalties?

It appears so.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?