It can be hard to predict how a first-round selection in the MLB draft will pan out. Many of these players are just finishing high school—they still have a lot of room to grow.
Still, when a team makes a bad pick, it becomes pretty apparent. Either the player is a long ways away from the bigs, or his talent just isn't commensurate with his draft slot.
In the first round, there were a few picks that made analysts and fans scratch their heads.
Read on to find out which picks were the worst.
Hunter Dozier, No. 8, Kansas City
Hunter Dozier was probably the biggest reach of the first round.
Keith Law of ESPN thought he would go way later in the draft:
Jim Bowden, also of ESPN, thought it was a pretty bad pick:
Dozier isn't awful, but he's not the type of player who will make a major impact. He's a good defender, although he will probably have to switch to third base. He has good power, and at 6'4", 220 pounds, could become a decent power hitter in the bigs.
Still, there's not much upside for the 21-year-old. He projects as a solid player, but someone like Dominic Smith, who was selected by the Mets 11th overall, has more upside and would have been a better long-term pick.
The Royals have been bad for a long time for a reason. The more mistakes they continue to make, both in the draft and in free agency, the longer they will remain at the bottom of the totem pole.
Phil Bickford, No. 10, Toronto Blue Jays
Phil Bickford has a lot of talent, but he could also turn out to be a complete flop.
The high school pitcher has a blazing fastball that's capable of reaching up to 97 mph. However, he doesn't have a great secondary pitch, and his command is iffy at best.
In addition, Bickford is committed to Cal State Fullerton, so it's not a guarantee that he signs with Toronto.
While the potential is there, it's also possible that Bickford never plays a game in a Blue Jays uniform. He could decide that he'll get more money if he performs well at the collegiate level.
And even if he doesn't go to college, there's no guarantee he'll develop a secondary pitch, or that his command will improve. He's a huge risk, and the Blue Jays should have taken a more reliable pitcher, perhaps someone like Gonzaga University lefty Marco Gonzales, who went 19th overall to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Christian Arroyo, No. 25, San Francisco Giants
Arroyo was a surprising pick, as not many had the raw shortstop pegged as a first-round pick.
He's a pretty weak defender, and a move to second base is likely in order. In addition, his bat speed is nothing to write home about. He's a bit of a liability on the base paths as well.
While he does have some power, he's not going to ever hit more than 20 in a season.
Even if he does pan out, which seems like a major stretch, it won't be for at least four or five years. Arroyo needs a lot of seasoning. He needs to improve his bat speed and needs to find a position that can mask his lack of speed.
The Giants, as perennial contenders, should have picked somebody who would be able to contribute right away. Arroyo is not that type of player. He won't make an impact for a long time, if he makes an impact at all.
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