The Mets selected 1B Dominic Smith in the first round of the 2013 MLB Draft
The New York Mets owned the 11th overall selection in the first round of this week's 2013 Major League Baseball Draft, which concludes later today. Will he turn out to be a stud or a dud?
Since the draft commenced in 1965, the Mets have had their share of good and bad draft selections over the years. Studs included Dwight Gooden (1982), Darryl Strawberry (1980) and Matt Harvey (2010).
Duds were led by Steve Chilcott (1966), Paul Wilson (1994) and Philip Humber (2004), among others. Baseball is far from an exact science, as we all know.
With that being said, let's take a look at some bold predictions for this year's first four draft picks, starting with New York's first-round selection.
Have the Mets found their heir apparent to Ike Davis?
New York selected first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith with its first-round pick (11th overall) in the 2013 MLB Draft. Let's take a look at his profile.
Drafted by: New York Mets (No. 11 Overall)
Height/Weight: 6'0"/195 lbs
School: Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA)
The Mets' farm system is weak overall with premier hitting prospects. Smith currently has a commitment to attend USC, but New York needs a top quality bat, so they will probably be aggressive in trying to sign him.
Bold Prediction: Mets regular first baseman in 2017.
Here is how Baseball Prospectus grades Smith's offensive skills:
Smith is a pure hitter that excels at barreling up balls and producing loud contact. At times he can get overly aggressive and expand the zone, but overall he has a good feel for the strike zone and shows the ability to both turn around good velocity and drive stuff on the outer-half to the left-center gap. As he matures physically, he should see a jump in his playable power, which has already improved over the past twelve months. The upside is a plus hit/plus power bat that could fit comfortably in the middle of a first division lineup.
With their second-round selection (48th overall), the Mets tabbed Nevada high school right-handed pitcher Andrew Church.
The 6'1", 185-pound native of Las Vegas, Nev. is a product of Basic High School.
Church was a 2013 Preseason Rawlings Second Team All-American. He has committed to the University of San Diego.
If the Mets can sign him, Church projects to be a very solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and innings eater.
Bold prediction: In New York's starting rotation by 2016.
Here is Baseball America's scouting profile on the 18-year-old Church via Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com:
Church ranked as the No. 90 high school prospect in the country heading into the season. He has a 6-foot-1, 185-pound build and shows some feel for a four-pitch mix. His fastball sits in the 89-92 mph range with some riding life and he's dialed it up as high as 95. Church mixes in a mid-to-upper 70s curveball and a changeup and slider that are both in the 78-80 mph range. Church has swing-and-miss stuff and has cleaned up his delivery since the summer showcase circuit. A member of Team Vegas in the summer and fall, Church is committed to San Diego as part of the Torero's outstanding class.
The Mets have had issues in the power department for several years now. They took a big step in addressing that issue down the road by drafting Ruston High School (LA) senior outfielder Ivan Wilson with their first selection in the third round (76th overall) in this year's MLB Draft.
The 6'3", 220-pound right-handed hitter has excellent power and very good speed and athleticism. He projects to be a corner outfielder at this time because he's not a speed burner. Wilson does possess a strong arm and has good range, though. He projects to be a five-tool player.
A two-sport star (football), Wilson batted .383 as a senior with eight home runs and eight triples. More than half of his hits went for extra bases and he also stole 12 bases.
Wilson committed to Grambling University just recently.
Bold prediction: Mets starting right fielder in 2016.
"It feels good," Wilson told Nick Stillman of NOLA.com. "This is a dream come true."
A tall, lanky right-hander, Meisner was selected by the New York Mets with their second pick of the third round (84th overall) in this year's MLB Draft.
The 6'7", 190-pound senior from Cypress Woods High School in Texas has a fastball that has been clocked as high as 94 mph. He's been more consistently around 90 mph, and also offers a fine curveball and changeup in his repertoire.
Bold prediction: Mets closer in 2018.
Meisner should add a few more miles per hour on his fastball once he adds weight to his lanky frame. He has committed to Texas Tech but has expressed interest in signing with a major league club.
That team is now the Mets.
It's not an easy decision to make, though, as Meisner explained to Adam Coleman of the Cypress Creek Mirror.
It’s extremely hard to make a life decision like that. The main thing I thought about was, when you get drafted, they pay for your college in a separate account. They put that money up so you can go back. You can take classes online. You can always go back to Texas Tech. The only thing I’m going to miss out on is playing college baseball.