(Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Since this Saturday's "Superfight" between Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton was announced earlier in January, much has been written about the possible outcome of the meeting.
Currently, Manny Pacquiao is the tout's favourite, although Hatton is not as much of an underdog as he'd have us believe. Most, however, are in agreement that the fight will not go the distance.
But bouts such as this create the kind of excitement they do precisely because the outcome is never a given. Here, the possibilities outnumber the probabilities in what is likely to be a fascinating meeting of styles.
As the eloquent Amir Khan recently put it: "It's going to be a 50-50 fight."
Word of this bout had emerged before Hatton trounced Paulie Malignaggi on Nov. 22, 2008, a full two weeks before Pacquiao comprehensively launched Oscar De La Hoya into retirement.
This has given the boxing voyeur ample time to study old footage, digest rumours, discuss and digress upon bounteous blogs, and, in the spirit of that peculiar attribute of the aficionado, calculate the various tactical permutations of "The Fight."
The result of my own months of work?
Manny Pacquiao will beat Ricky Hatton by TKO in Rounds 8-9.
My instincts tell me otherwise: both could go the distance in a bloody, bruising battle (in which, I believe, Pacquiao will still emerge victorious), or Hatton could simply deliver on his word and pressurize the smaller man into submission.
In fact, when I let my imagination ramble the latter is frequently the outcome. Hatton's style does, if nothing else, bestir the imagination.
That said, a thorough scrutiny of Hatton's arsenal unearths more questions than it does answers. The fact is, when I place Pacquiao and Hatton "on paper," Pacquiao emerges the victor 90 percent of the time.
This is because I feel I know what to expect from Pacquiao. He will use his speed and footwork to disrupt Hatton's rhythm, frustrating and gradually dismantling the Englishman in a stoppage due either to exhaustion or cuts.
Of course, the central question hanging over Pacquiao is whether or not he can face a "naturally" larger opponent in Hatton.
And I believe he can precisely because the answers to the questions surrounding Hatton are all the more uncertain.
Are Weight and Size Really the Big Issues?
Although Pacquiao began his career at 106 pounds, his speed and power have remained incremental with his natural rise in weight. More significantly, even if he was never really tested against De La Hoya, he appeared readily comfortable at the welterweight limit.
In April, Roach insisted, "By fight time, Ricky's going to be heavier than Manny, but that doesn't make you stronger. Manny's really developed into this weight and I feel 140 is now the best weight for him."
It is also important to note that while Hatton commands a 2 cm height advantage over Pacquiao, he is outreached by the Filipino in arm length by 5 cm.
Therefore, the so-called size advantage Hatton holds is less to do with his bulk and more to do with his style. If he can draw Pacquiao into his type of fight (attack, grip, attack) he can dominate the match. But I do not see a controlled Pacquiao being lured into a brawl that easily.
Can Hatton Handle a Southpaw?
Hatton's record against southpaws is poor: although he has beaten all four of his southpaw opponents, he has never done so in a convincing way.
The prime example of this is Luis Collazo. Regardless of Hatton's early knockdown, most scored the bout in favour of Collazo.
Indeed, despite his strong-arm tactics, Hatton visibly struggled as the fight unfolded, as the southpaw quickly adjusted to the Briton and upset his rhythm with well placed jabs and hooks.
Under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, Pacquiao will use this to his advantage and will be seeking to set the pace from the opening bell.
To call again on the kid Khan: "I think it's going to be all about who settles down into the fight the quickest."
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