2013 MLB Player Prop Bets Odds: Regular Season Home Run Title

Kevin Stott@@KevinStott11Senior Analyst IMay 24, 2013

2013 MLB Player Prop Bets Odds: Regular Season Home Run Title

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    With the 2013 Major League Baseball season in full swing, now is the perfect time to take a look at the current odds for the home run title from the LVH SuperBook here in sunny Sin City.

    Let's take a look at some of the top players and examine the potential value of a futures bet, with the fresh odds from May 23 and current home run totals from that same date.

    Here we go.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

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    2013 Home Runs: 14
    2012 Home Runs: 44
    Current Odds: 4-1

    The Skinny: The Tigers' talented third baseman won this bet last year with his 44 blasts. At a muscular 6'4", he has the massive frame to make a run at the crown again this time around.

    Cabrera sits one back of Baltimore's Chris Davis for the overall lead after blasting a two-run shot off the Minnesota Twins' Scott Diamond in the first inning on Thursday evening.

    Miggy has as good a chance as anyone to win his backers some money here, but at 4-1 odds, let's look for a little more value and fade the big man in hopes that he hits a dry spell or two. Granted, it's quite unlikely for a hitter of his caliber.

José Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

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    2013 Home Runs: 11
    2012 Home Runs: 27
    Current Odds: 5-1

    The Skinny: José Bautista is always capable of winning this bet, but at 5-1 odds, backing the right-handed slugger is just not worth it in my opinion. A potential injury or lull may affect the 32-year-old.

    Time will tell if Bautista will make me eat my words.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

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    2013 Home Runs: 10
    2012 Home Runs: 30
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: One of the best young prospects to come up to the big leagues in quite some time, 21-year-old Mike Trout is a pleasure to watch and could hold some real value here at the current 12-1 odds.

    The 6'1" Trout hit for the cycle against the Mariners in Anaheim on May 21 and is just five homers back of the leader Davis, but I suggest putting a little bit on a teammate of his we'll discuss later. His name is not Albert Pujols (40-1) or Josh Hamilton (100-1).

Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers

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    2013 Home Runs: 9
    2012 Home Runs: 30
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: Another big slugger from the team the LVH SuperBook currently has as the favorite to win the World Series (6-1), Prince Fielder looks like a home run hitter—just like his daddy Cecil did.

    At 6'0", 275 pounds, Fielder hasn't missed many, if any, meals and has a violent swing for a left-handed hitter.

    Although the 29-year-old should stay in the home run race all season, I see him tiring in midsummer and finishing about four-to-seven long balls off the eventual winner. At 12-1, this just isn't worth your money.

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays

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    2013 Home Runs: 12
    2012 Home Runs: 42
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: The second Blue Jays entrant on this slideshow, 30-year-old Edwin Encarnacion is the first guy I'd recommend taking a shot on—especially at these 12-1 odds.

    The Dominican right-handed hitter is just two off the lead at this point in time and finished only three home runs back of Ryan Braun last season. And at 6'2", 235 pounds, Encarnacion is truly built like a power hitter.

    Best to grab this one now before it evaporates.

Robinson Canó, New York Yankees

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    2013 Home Runs: 13
    2012 Home Runs: 33
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: This Bronx Bomber has a beautiful swing and a very short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium (314'). He is just one back of the leaders right now, and at 6'0", 210 pounds, the Dominican-American has the perfect body for a wide receiver but will likely get edged out by a bigger body in the long run.

    Proving history is a mystery and perception isn't always close to reality, Canó is almost the exact same size as Babe Ruth was (6'0", 215 pounds).

    At 12-1, Cano still has real value and may be worth a look, but I will choose to go with a couple of players with higher possible returns.

Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves

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    2013 Home Runs: 14
    2012 Home Runs: 17
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: Justin Upton is just three home runs back from his 2012 total for the Arizona Diamondbacks and the 25-year-old certainly has the frame (6'2", 205 pounds) to put many balls in the seats. The current 12-1 odds should go down if he continues this impressive pace.

    But do we back him?

    Nope. I just don't have enough confidence in him continuing his torrid pace, although he will surely finish with more homers than his brother B.J.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

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    2013 Home Runs: 12
    2012 Home Runs: 22
    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: The pride of Las Vegas High School is one of the most entertaining and talented kids, along with Trout, to come up to MLB in almost a decade. And with an idol like Mickey Mantle, you know Bryce Harper thinks he's a home run hitter.

    At the tender age of 20, the 6'2" Harper is obviously one to watch and was named the National League Rookie of the Year last season.

    But can the former No. 1 pick win the MLB home run title? Probably not. Seldom do five-tool players with so much speed ever actually end up on top of the heap.

The Field

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    Current Odds: 12-1

    The Skinny: Always worth a look. For those who don't know, "The Field' is a compilation of all of the players not specifically listed on a sportsbook's futures list.

    This year, the bet is worth getting a piece of—especially at 12-1.

    Some players with hot starts who fall into this category are Baltimore's Chris Davis—who leads MLB with 15 homers heading into Friday's action—Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt (12) and New York Yankee Vernon Wells (10).

    Toss in all the other players not listed with Davis and Goldschmidt and this wager definitely holds some value, although the two above are likely the only ones who could actually end up with the most home runs.

Where You At, Big Names?

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    What strikes me here is the number of big-name guys who are absent from the slideshow.

    Besides the aforementioned Angels Pujols and Hamilton, studs like the Dodgers' Matt Kemp (300-1), the Reds' Jay Bruce and Joey Votto (100-1), the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton (100-1) and the Red Sox's David Ortiz (100-1) will all need minor miracles to somehow be crowned the home run champ.

    With seven dingers to date, though, taking a flier on the red-hot Ortiz may look like a genius move come late September.


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    There are just too many players and possibilities to cover in one story, but I do have three players worth a bet who provide value and could end up winning this future foray.

    The Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun led the NL last year with 41 home runs and the right-handed hitter has nine so far this season. He is listed at 12-1 in Las Vegas' largest sportsbook and may be worth a look at that price, although I'll pass on him, as I usually lean to a player from the AL to win this.

    The Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez (11 home runs), although in the NL, is now listed at 30-1. With a fantastic swing and the altitude in Denver, he could end up the MLB leader. And at 30-1, a small $5 bet (the minimum) would pay its backers $150.

    The Angels slugger I hinted at earlier is Mark Trumbo (10 home runs), and at 20-1, he is also worth at least a small bet in my mind. The right-handed hitter doesn't get nearly the attention (or the money) that teammates Trout, Pujols or Hamilton do, he but can make a run at this—especially if his team starts playing a little better.

    White Sox left-handed monster Adam Dunn (11), four behind the current leader Davis, can reward his backers at 15-1. He looks like he's trying to go deep on every at-bat.


    To recap, "The Field" (12-1), Encarnacion (12-1), Dunn (15-1), Trumbo (20-1) and Gonzalez (30-1) are my five best bets. If you choose to back any of these or your own, good luck.

    If you are seeking any current odds for players not mentioned, please ask for them in the comment section below and I'll provide them up until June 1.


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