Player: Dylan Covey
Drafted by: Oakland Athletics (No. 131 overall)
DOB: 8/14/1991 (Age: 21)
Height/Weight: 6'2"/205 lbs
School: San Diego
Previously Drafted: 2010: 1st Round Pick (14th overall) by Milwaukee Brewers
Covey is a name familiar to a lot of casual draft fans, as the Brewers took him in the first round three years ago before he decided to pass on their offer and attend the University of San Diego. He had also just been diagnosed with diabetes and wanted to focus on managing it before starting his pro career.
While you can't necessarily argue with Covey's choice from a personal standpoint, it is not one that is likely to produce the best results financially. If he goes in the first round again, it would be a huge shock. It might even be a shock to see him go in the first two rounds.
Full Scouting Report
Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 80-point scouting scale, with the current score first and projected score second.
Strong, durable frame at 6'2" and 200 pounds; with diabetes under control, should have no problem working 180 innings; very crisp, clean mechanics with little wasted motion; good lower half; will speed up delivery with runners on base, which causes control problems.
Solid-average velocity on fastball (90-93) with the ability to touch a little higher; some life on the pitch, but not enough that it will make hitters swing over the top; gets in trouble when he doesn't stay on top of the ball; will need to control pitch better for it to be effective weapon.
Sharp bite on breaking ball when it is on; struggles to throw pitch for strikes enough to get hitters to swing at it when he wants to throw it out of the zone; uses it against left-handed hitters with a slider against righties; both breaking balls break hard but have inconsistent shape right now.
Average pitch with little projection left; will throw it in the 80-82 mph range; decent fading action at the end; solid feel for it but wants to challenge hitters with breaking balls before going to the changeup; has to prove he is confident using it to raise his ceiling.
Biggest issue has been throwing strikes; walked nearly as many as he struck out in his first two seasons at San Diego (79-71); K-BB ratio has improved this season (58-37), but still doesn't hit strike zone enough; delivery and stuff should make it easier to acclimate to big leagues.
Relies more on stuff than ability; lacks confidence to attack hitters, which puts him behind a typical college-age starter; displays ability to hit the glove out of the wind-up, but folds like a tent with runners on base; average command projection might be generous, but the delivery is good enough that he could find it.
MLB Player Comparison: Jon Garland
Projection: No. 4 starter who can eat innings on first-division team.
MLB ETA: 2016
Chances of Signing: 60%
Considering how Covey's stock has dropped this year, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he will return to San Diego for his senior season hoping to improve his draft stock. Of course, had he gotten into pro ball right away, there is a chance he would have already flamed out.
By going to school and working through the hardships, Covey has made himself mentally stronger. Whether that means he is a better pitcher or not is up for debate. There is a better-than-even shot he signs, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he went back to college.