Preakness Odds: Premier Horses That Are Being Undervalued

Matt Fitzgerald@@MattFitz_geraldCorrespondent IIIMay 16, 2013

Bob Baffert's Govenor Charlie headlines the best bargains of the 2013 Preakness Stakes.
Bob Baffert's Govenor Charlie headlines the best bargains of the 2013 Preakness Stakes.Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The 2013 Preakness Stakes morning lines have been determined, and Orb is the headliner as the even-money favorite. Making such a bet on him to win is safe to the point of it being illogical, but there are other competitors being underestimated.

A lot can happen with so much room at Pimlico Race Course and only nine horses set to race in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Below is a breakdown of the horses with longer odds that are still worth analyzing as potential upstarts that could play spoiler to Orb's pursuit of history.

Note: All information, odds and statistics, unless otherwise indicated, are courtesy of

Post Positions and Odds

Post No.







Shug McGaughey

Joel Rosario




Doug O'Neill

Kevin Krigger



Titletown Five

D. Wayne Lukas

Julien Leparoux




Albert M. Stall Jr.

Brian Hernandez Jr.




Tom Amoss

Rosie Napravnik




D. Wayne Lukas

Gary Stevens



Will Take Charge

D. Wayne Lukas

Mike Smith



Govenor Charlie

Bob Baffert

Martin Garcia




Eddie Plesa Jr.

John Velazquez


*Odds via KY Derby Contenders on Twitter, as of 7 p.m. ET, May 15

Govenor Charlie (12-1)

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert elected not to enter Govenor Charlie into the Kentucky Derby due to a foot bruise that sidelined him at a key training juncture in early April.

Now that Govenor Charlie is healthier, he should not be underestimated at Pimlico on Saturday. Baffert also expressed his approval about where his horse is slated to start:

Govenor Charlie's father was prolific sprinter Midnight Lute, which is also the name of Baffert's Twitter handle. Especially on the shorter track in Baltimore as opposed to what Govenor Charlie would have faced at Churchill Downs, this course should suit the colt extremely well.

At the Grade III Sunland Derby back in late March, Govenor Charlie blazed through the one and one-eighth miles at 1:47:56—a record for Sunland Park in New Mexico.

Assuming his health checks out—and Baffert indicated he had a strong workout upon arrival on Wednesday—Govenor Charlie is a bargain at 12-1.

Will Take Charge (12-1)

Another prominent trainer in D. Wayne Lukas is turning to more experience in the saddle. Lukas is replacing his Kentucky Derby jockey Jon Court with a superior veteran in Mike Smith, who has notched all three jewels in the Triple Crown in his illustrious career.

Smith rode Palace Malice for Todd Pletcher at Churchill Downs, and set a staggeringly fast pace before fading in the end.

This time around, Will Take Charge is a much more realistic contender for Smith to deal with—and it also helps that the field is significantly smaller, with only nine running as opposed to 19.

Traffic problems stymied Will Take Charge's effort in Louisville, and Lukas observed that if he had more space, he could have been the one entering the winners circle that Saturday (h/t KY Derby Contenders Twitter page):

Amongst the three horses Lukas is entering into the Preakness, this colt should be the top choice to take home the Black-Eyed Susan Blanket.

Oxbow (15-1)

Gary Stevens couldn't rekindle the magic that won him three previous Runs for the Roses at Churchill Downs, but he's sticking with Lukas and Oxbow once again in Baltimore.

To come out of retirement as Stevens did, it had to take a horse he believed in. That came in the form of Oxbow, whose speed is magnificent. Size is a bit of a concern, but he did finish a respectable sixth in the Kentucky Derby despite a dampened track.

Oxbow and Stevens are still getting a feel for each other, and it should only translate to a better run. The horse has flashed enough potential in the past to indicate he can compete with top-tier competition, finishing second in the Grade II Rebel Stakes behind only Will Take Charge.

Plus, check out this bit of history about Oxbow's No. 6 starting post, courtesy of HRTV:

History apparently favors Oxbow to be a horse of destiny and emerge as the victor despite sporting the second-worst odds. Of all the true long shots to place coin on, Oxbow should be the pick.


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