Projecting Triple-Crown Odds for Orb
After a thrilling, come-from-behind victory at the 139th Kentucky Derby, it's Orb that will be dominating headlines as we begin to figure out his chances at winning the elusive Triple Crown.
In a mud-filled race, many were wondering if the inconsistent Orb was ready to make a late surge or if the conditions would deter him. Obviously, he proved which of those were true with his victory.
Now that we have our champion and a better outlook, it's time to dive into Triple Crown odds for the three-year-old colt to see if he has a real chance of matching what Affirmed did in 1978.
My unofficial, predicted odds for Orb to win the Triple Crown are 15-to-1.
For trainer Claude "Shug" McGaughey III to have a better feel of his horse's chances, all he has to do is look around at the competitors at Churchill Downs. The massive flock of favorites made predicting the race so difficult that the favorite seemed to change every hour.
With that level of quality surrounding Orb, it would be a miraculous feat for him to threaten the Triple Crown. Out of Verrazano, Goldencents, Normandy Invasion, Revolutionary and more, there will be a heap of contenders threatening Orb.
Don't let the thrilling run of I'll Have Another in 2012 fool you. Even winning the Preakness Stakes after winning the Kentucky Derby is a huge feat, to say the least, and Orb will go down in history if he's capable of doing that.
While it's too early for official odds to come out on Orb's chances at the Triple Crown, don't expect them to be high. Oddsmakers and bettors will take into account the quality horses surrounding Orb.
Here's the list of where each horse finished in the Kentucky Derby:
|1||Orb||Joel Rosario||Claude R. McGaughey III||16|
|2||Golden Soul||Robby Albarado||Dallas Stewart||4|
|3||Revolutionary||Calvin Borel||Todd Pletcher||3|
|4||Normandy Invasion||Javier Castellano||Chad Brown||5|
|5||Mylute||Rosie Napravnik||Tom Amoss||6|
|6||Oxbow||Gary Stevens||D. Wayne Lukas||2|
|7||Lines of Battle||Ryan Moore||Aidan O'Brien||11|
|8||Will Take Charge||Jon Court||D. Wayne Lukas||17|
|9||Charming Kitten||Edgar Prado||Todd Pletcher||15|
|10||Giant Finish||Jose L. Espinoza||Anthony W. Dutrow||7|
|11||Overanalyze||Rafael Bejarano||Todd Pletcher||9|
|12||Palace Malice||Mike Smith||Todd Pletcher||10|
|13||Java's War||Julien Leparoux||Kenny McPeek||19|
|14||Verrazano||John R. Velazquez||Todd Pletcher||14|
|15||Itsmyluckyday||Elvis Trujillo||Eddie Plesa, Jr.||12|
|16||Frac Daddy||Victor Lebron||Kenny McPeek||18|
|17||Goldencents||Kevin Krigger||Doug O'Neill||8|
|18||Vyjack||Garrett Gomez||Rudy Rodriguez||20|
|19||Falling Sky||Luis Saez||John Terranova II||13
Do you think Orb has a shot at the Triple Crown?
Heading into Saturday's race, there was no telling which of the contenders would claim glory at Churchill Downs. Though, Orb was one of the favorites throughout a week that saw the odds change like crazy and ended up being the favorite when the gates opened (according to KentuckyDerby.com).
At first, it seemed like a mistake. Coming out of the 16th gate, Orb was stuck near the back of the 19-horse field for much of the race as he couldn't escape a crowded, muddy flock of horses.
But when the horses approached the final turn, Orb's dominance began to show. After being one of the last three horses at the time, he put on a show as he reached the outside and blistered past his competition.
Orb may not have great odds of winning the Triple Crown, but what he was able to do Saturday at Churchill Downs was nothing short of spectacular and will go down in horse racing lore.
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