Kentucky Derby Picks 2013: How Weather Would Affect Order of Finish
The 2013 Kentucky Derby was already considered one of the most exciting events of the year, but the added intrigue of rain throughout Derby Day (h/t Weather.com) has horse-racing fans pondering how Mother Nature will affect the finishing order.
Does the rain help or hurt the Kentucky Derby experience for YOU?
The wet track can make the slow-starting horses struggle out of the gate even more than normal, while those that have the experience of running or even winning on wet tracks will now have the definitive advantage Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.
While some dark-horse contenders will thrive under the wet conditions of the track, many of the favorites will struggle to get their footing and miss their shot at glory.
This is the predicted finish with the rain taken into account and the horses that will feel the impact of the weather most.
All betting information via Bovada and all stats courtesy of Horse Racing Nation.
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
When: Saturday, May 4
Post Time: 6:24 p.m. ET
Purse: $2.18 million
Live stream: NBC Sports
Complete Projections with Weather Variable
|7||Normandy Invasion||5||Javier Castellano||10-1|
|9||Palace Malice||10||Mike Smith||25-1|
|11||Java's War||19||Julien Leparoux||15-1|
|12||Will Take Charge||17||Jon Court||20-1|
|14||Charming Kitten||15||Edgar Prado||30-1|
|15||Golden Soul||4||Robby Albarado||50-1|
|16||Frac Daddy||18||Victor Lebron||30-1|
|17||Falling Sky||13||Luis Saez||50-1|
|18||Giant Finish||7||Jose Espinoza||50-1|
|19||Lines of Battle||11||Ryan Moore||30-1|
Odds as of 2:20 p.m. ET, May 4
How Weather Would Impact These Top Horses
Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack
At 12-1 and 18-1 odds respectively, Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack are getting little love at the betting window—both are starting to receive some of the credit they deserve—but these horses will be difference-makers in the 2013 Derby.
Each has experience on wet surfaces, and each has won in less-than-ideal conditions.
While Itsmyluckyday is a colt that would be a safe bet to show, Vyjack is a gelding that wasn’t expected to be much of a threat on Derby day.
If Vyjack can get out of the gates fast—stuck in the 20th post position to start the race—there is no question that the experience on a rain-soaked course will put both Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack into contention.
While the horse racing world is all in on Orb—the once morning-line favorite is now at 5-1 odds—the unflattering track conditions are horrible news for the bona fide Triple Crown contender.
Despite winning each of his last four races coming into Saturday’s big race, the Claude McGaughey-trained horse has not only never won on a wet track before, but also has never even raced on a wet track (h/t New York Times).
There is no discounting the momentum the horse and his jockey, Joel Rosario, have created, including a huge win at the Florida Derby, but the lack of experience in tough weather conditions makes a wager on Orb a risk not worth taking.
As intriguing as the 5-1 odds are for a horse that has won four straight, don’t fall into this trap.
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