It's long, long road.
For many, the hopes of reaching the Kentucky Derby starting gate began in 2010 when these three-year-olds were born. They were weaned, broke, trained and, when the money was down, proved to be the cream of their crop. Twenty out of some 27,000 foals born.
I've always maintained that anyone can eliminate about half the field from contention right off the bat. Then, with the appropriate bank roll, you can cover yourself with the 10 most likely contenders.
I've combed through race replays and come to some solid conclusions about where I think the most competitive horses will finish.
Here's what I think the favorites (as provided by KentuckyDerby.com) will do, and may you have the bank roll to fund a beautiful afternoon.