Kentucky Derby 2013 Horses: Long Shots to Avoid at Churchill Downs

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Kentucky Derby 2013 Horses: Long Shots to Avoid at Churchill Downs
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Kentucky Derby has been dominated by long shots in recent years, highlighted by I'll Have Another's improbable win at Churchill Downs a year ago.

Unfortunately, not every long-shot pick is as smart as it is bold. An unfavorable post draw can spell doom for a horse who prefers to run outside or get to the front early. With only four favorites heading into Saturday's 139th Run for the Roses, there are plenty of long shots to choose from this year.

Here we'll highlight a trio of underdogs to avoid this weekend.

 

2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds courtesy of NBC Sports, via WDRB's Steve Andress.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Black Onyx
Joe Bravo
Kelly Breen
50-1
2  Oxbow
Gary Stevens
D. Wayne Lukas
30-1
3 Revolutionary  Calvin Borel  Todd Pletcher
10-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado  Dallas Stewart  50-1
5 Normandy Invasion
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
12-1
6 Mylute
Rosie Napravnik
Tom Amoss
15-1
7 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza  Anthony W. Dutrow  50-1
8 Goldencents  Kevin Krigger  Doug O'Neill  5-1
9 Overanalyze  Rafael Bejarano  Todd Pletcher  15-1
10 Palace Malice  Mike Smith  Todd Pletcher  20-1
11 Lines of Battle  Ryan Moore  Aidan O'Brien  30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr.  15-1
13 Falling Sky  Luis Saez  John Terranova II  50-1
14 Verrazano
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
4-1
15 Charming Kitten
Edgar Prado
Todd Pletcher
20-1
16 Orb Joel Rosario
Claude R. McGaughey III
7/2
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court
D. Wayne Lukas
20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron  Kenny McPeek
50-1
19 Java's War  Julien Leparoux  Kenny McPeek  15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez
Rudy Rodriguez
15-1

 

Black Onyx, 50-1, Post No. 1

Don't confuse post No. 1's status as the winningest post in Kentucky Derby history with the winningest in recent history.

It's been nearly 30 years since a horse won the Derby from the rail in post No. 1, which bodes terribly for long shot Black Onyx in 2013. Just ask Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde.

Black Onyx, ridden by jockey Joe Bravo, has never started a race from the rail. And with Calvin Borel and Revolutionary running from post No. 3, don't be surprised if the 50-1 long shot gets sent to the back of the pack early on.

While a bad draw is never solely to blame for a horse's performance at the Kentucky Derby, it can certainly have a big-time influence on how well or poorly the horse gets out of the gate and ultimately navigates the 1 1/4-mile dirt track.

 

Lines of Battle, 30-1, Post No. 11

Lines of Battle, a 30-1 dark horse running out of post No. 11, should struggle on Saturday—and for similar reasons as Black Onyx.

At the Kentucky Derby, the horses are loaded into the posts two at a time, starting with post Nos. 1 and 11 and working their way down. That said, both Black Onyx and Lines of Battle will spend more time in the post prior to the gun, which could potentially lead to an anxious start.

Perhaps that's why post Nos. 1, 2, 11 and 12 haven't produced a Kentucky Derby winner since the late 1980s. 

Winning Colors was the last horse to win the Derby from post No. 11 back in 1988, and only three horses have come from that post to win the Derby since the start of the 20th century. 

Also keep in mind that the Aidan O'Brien-trained Lines of Battle has raced just once this year, winning the Grade II U.A.E. Derby last March.

 

Frac Daddy, 50-1, Post No. 18

Another 50-1 long shot at Churchill Downs is Frac Daddy, one of two Derby horses trained by Ken McPeek.

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Running out of the 18th post on Saturday, this colt looks to have a microscopic chance of conquering the first leg of the Triple Crown this spring. Only one horse in history has ever won from post No. 18, and that was Gato Del Sol way back in 1982.

While post Nos. 15 and 16 have produced a combined six winners over the last 20 Kentucky Derby races, posts Nos. 17 and 18 have combined to produce just one winner in the history of the event.

Mine That Bird, the last horse with 50-1 odds that won the Derby in 2009, started much closer to the rail inside post No. 8. Frac Daddy had a strong showing at the Grade II Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last month, but a poor draw and improved competition should make him a non-factor this weekend.

 

Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter. 

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