Kentucky Derby 2013 Odds: Breaking Down Best and Worst Bets in This Year's Field

Patrick Clarke@@_Pat_ClarkeCorrespondent IMay 3, 2013

LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 01:  Exercise rider Humberto Zamora rides Kentucky Derby hopeful Verrazano during morning training in preparation for the 2013 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

The field of 20 horses has been set, post positions have been drawn and all that's left to do is crown a Kentucky Derby winner on Saturday evening at Churchill Downs.

There are several favorites to win the 139th Run for the Roses this weekend, but two of these contenders look to be better bets than the others. With plenty of past performances to look back on, and tons of Derby history to dissect, it's time to take a closer look at some of this year's popular bets.

Here are the latest odds for the entire field, plus a breakdown of the best and worst bets this weekend.


2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds via

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Black Onyx
Joe Bravo
Kelly Breen
2  Oxbow
Gary Stevens
D. Wayne Lukas
3 Revolutionary  Calvin Borel  Todd Pletcher
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado  Dallas Stewart  50-1
5 Normandy Invasion
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
6 Mylute
Rosie Napravnik
Tom Amoss
7 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza  Anthony W. Dutrow  50-1
8 Goldencents  Kevin Krigger  Doug O'Neill  11-2
9 Overanalyze  Rafael Bejarano  Todd Pletcher  14-1
10 Palace Malice  Mike Smith  Todd Pletcher  25-1
11 Lines of Battle  Ryan Moore  Aidan O'Brien  33-1
12 Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr.  12-1
13 Falling Sky  Luis Saez  John Terranova II  50-1
14 Verrazano
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
15 Charming Kitten
Edgar Prado
Todd Pletcher
16 Orb Joel Rosario
Claude R. McGaughey III
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court
D. Wayne Lukas
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron  Kenny McPeek
19 Java's War  Julien Leparoux  Kenny McPeek  16-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez
Rudy Rodriguez


Best Bets

Orb, 4-1

Orb looks poised to become the first betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since Big Brown in 2008.

The talented colt has won four consecutive races, including the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Ridden by jockey Joel Rosario, Orb should be in the mix from start to finish, especially after drawing post No. 16.

Post No. 16 has produced four Derby winners since 1995, including 2011 winner Animal Kingdom.

There doesn't look to be much standing in Orb's way this weekend. Shug McGaughey's horse has an impressive resume that speaks for itself, and his post draw couldn't be more promising.


Goldencents, 11-2

You have to love Goldencents' chances of winning this weekend at Churchill Downs. 

With 11-2 odds and riding out of post No. 8, there isn't much stopping the Grade I Santa Anita Derby winner from capturing the 139th Run for the Roses, even with Orb, Verrazano and Revolutionary all looking strong going in.

If you need another reason to like Goldencents, who is co-owned by Louisville basketball head coach Rick Pitino, just remember he is trained by last year's Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill.

Kevin Krigger will sit atop Goldencents this weekend. Krigger is just the second black jockey to ride in the Derby since 1921, according to Men's Journal's Ryan Goldberg.


Worst Bets

Java's War, 16-1

Ken McPeek's Java's War will start way outside at post No. 19 on Saturday, the same post I'll Have Another won from a year ago.

Unfortunately, I'll Have Another was the first horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby to win from post No. 19, stacking the odds heavily against a horse who won the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month from post No. 4.

Java's War should struggle to keep pace with the favorites. After all, he has never won from outside the inner 10 posts, making him a bad bet on Saturday at 16-to-1.


Will Take Charge, 20-1

Two posts down from Java's War is Will Take Charge, a D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse that drew the most challenging starting slot in Derby history by the numbers.

No horse has ever won the Run for the Roses from post No. 17, so Will Take Charge will attempt to become the first in 2013. Ridden by jockey Jon Court, the Grade II Rebel Stakes winner will have to deal with favorite Orb from the opening gun. 

Will Take Charge will have a lot of time to settle inside with the pack, but with other favorites like Revolutionary, Goldencents and Verrazano likely setting the pace from the inside, Lukas' thoroughbred could definitely find himself at a disadvantage.


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