2013 Kentucky Derby Favorites Who Will Disappoint on Race Day

Dan TalintyreSenior Analyst IIMay 3, 2013

LOUISVILLE, KY - APRIL 28:  Jennifer Patterson rides Orb during the morning excercise session in preparation for the 139th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 28, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The 2013 Kentucky Derby will take place this weekend at the infamous Churchill Downs course, with every horse in the race having a chance at taking out the race this year.

Of course, the favorite horses and those with the best post positions will come into the race with a much greater chance of winning on the day. Yet as we've seen throughout the illustrious history of the grand race, favorites are often found to disappoint us (and our predictions) when it comes to race day.

This year won't be an exception to that.

Orb (2-1), Verrazano (5-2) and Revolutionary (7-2) currently dominate the market in terms of favoritism, with several other horses found around the 10-1 mark.

However, several of those horses will disappoint us greatly in the 2013 Kentucky Derby, so read on to see which favorites to avoid backing this year.

Revolutionary (currently 7-2)

Revolutionary comes into the 2013 Kentucky Derby with a great run of form under his belt, which was capped off with a great win at the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

However, it's hard to see him triumphing at Louisiana this weekend. Revolutionary has struggled to match the pace of certain horses in his last few races, and with the tempo unlikely to be blistering on Saturday, Revolutionary could find himself with lots of work to do down the home stretch.

He can overtake tired leads as we saw in the Louisiana Derby, but he doesn't possess the sprinter's touch required to topple the likes of Orb and Goldcents here—not that he gives them a head start at all.

Revolutionary is a good pack runner, but it's hard to see him finishing anything better than in the middle of that pack this weekend.

Verrazano (Currently 5-2)

With four wins from his four starts, Verrazano comes into the Kentucky Derby this year as the early favorite, but he too will disappoint once the big races rolls around.

Verrazano hasn't had to fight it out for a win against another horse this year. He's been well clear down the straight and hasn't really had any challengers—something that appears bound to change when he lines up against the likes of Orb and Goldcents this weekend.

Both of those horses are excellent at winning close races, and without the greatest pedigree over 1.25 miles, big question marks have to be asked about his chances here. He might be 5-2, but he'll struggle to prove that hype come Saturday.

Overanalyze (currently 15-1)

Overanalyze hasn't had a great deal of love in the market, but with a nice run in 2013 so far, he still comes into the Kentucky Derby this year as one of the horses to beat—which could very well happen.

He's shown a real lack of tactical prowess in these sort of big races and is yet to prove himself against this type of field over the 1.25 miles. A Grade I win at the Arkansas Derby was impressive, but the fact that he has only one Beyer Speed Figure run capable of challenging the field at Churchill Downs this year should see interest wane off the Todd Pletcher-trained horse.

Even without great pace and the chance to come wide down the straight, it's hard to see Overanalyze gunning down one of the better caliber-sprinters in front.

He just hasn't shown the form capable of doing so in 2013, and against this field—which boasts some very quick horses—it'll be another good (but winless) run from Overanalyze.

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