NFL Draft 2013: High-Risk Stars Who Won't Fulfill Potential

Joseph ZuckerFeatured ColumnistApril 24, 2013

ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 12:  Alec Ogletree #9 of the Georgia Bulldogs breaks a up a pass intended for Onterio McCalebb #23 of the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium on November 12, 2011 in Athens, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

If you're thinking about drafting Alec Ogletree, just go ahead and take him off your board.

In terms of off-field problems, pick your poison. Robert Klemko of USA Today did a good job chronicling all of his indiscretions. There was the theft charge from his freshman season. He was suspended the first four games of his junior season for violating Georgia's substance abuse policy. Then, he was arrested in February 2013 for driving under the influence.

Then there's his on-field production. Ogletree is a very good athlete, but as a linebacker, he'll run into trouble. Ogletree has a hard time dealing with blockers, so his ability against the run is stunted. His instincts are questionable at times, so Ogletree can take himself out of plays.

In the right round, Ogletree is worth the risk. Inevitably, some team will reach for him in the first round or early second.

Along with Ogletree, here are three players who are bound to disappoint.


Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

There's no doubting the physical gifts Barkevious Mingo possesses. His potential is enormous, and as a result, Mingo seems like a lock to go in the first 10 picks.

Mingo has only a few holes in his game going into the draft. The problem is that what little red flags he does have could turn into major problems.

At this point, Mingo is still a bit raw. In college, he could get away with relying largely on his superior athleticism. That could work for a little while in the NFL, but sooner or later, teams are going to figure him out. Unless he can utilize his hands better when engaged with offensive linemen, Mingo will become a one-dimensional pass-rusher and not the kind of every-down threat on the defensive line he should be.

Mingo could become a productive player, but he'll fail to make the most of the physical tools he has at his disposal.


Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

Some draft experts have Sylvester Williams going in the first round. That would be a huge mistake for whatever team is drafting him.

Williams has shown flashes of being a dominant defensive tackle, but the problem is those flashes have been too few and far between. Far too often, Williams has been absent for large stretches of games.

Lacking the athleticism of other DTs in the draft, it's hard to see Williams having a higher upside than Sheldon Richardson or even Jesse Williams and Kawann Short.

Williams likes to use his swim move a lot, which will only make him effective until opposing linemen figure out how to negate that. Whichever team does eventually draft Williams will have a lot of work ahead trying to get him to vary his game on the defensive line.


D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

D.J. Fluker should become a very good right tackle.

Should a very good right tackle be drafted in the top 15? Probably not.

He would make sense going to a team like the Cincinnati Bengals or Green Bay Packers in the later part of the first round. The Miami Dolphins would be foolish to take him at No. 12.

Fluker has the talent to be a productive lineman. But that's either going to come at right tackle or a guard position. He's nowhere near athletic enough to ward off quick speed rushers.

His lateral quickness is lacking, so Fluker wouldn't be able to get out on the edge. Pass-rushers would have a field day attacking the quarterback's blind side.

Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack are guards, but you could see them going in the top 10. Fluker is nowhere near those guys in terms of talent, though.