While Miami has a tremendous home-court advantage, the Bucks do not. Milwaukee won just 21 games at home this season, which is by far the worst of any playoff team.
Miami won 29 road games this season, which is the most in the league and six wins better than any Eastern Conference playoff team.
Still, if the Bucks are going to steal one in this series, it will have to be at home. The Bucks are a better offensive team at home than on the road, scoring almost five more points a game in Milwaukee.
However, Miami is still going to win this game. The Heat are just such a dynamic offense that unless Miami has an off-night, which is unlikely to occur in the postseason, it will outscore the Bucks' offense
Also, Miami actually plays better defense on the road than at home, allowing just 94.4 points per game. So, in fact, the Bucks are likely to be just as ineffective offensively in Milwaukee as they were in Miami.
Milwaukee will feed off of its, albeit not very strong, home-court advantage and hang in this game for a bit. But Miami has too much two-way talent and will prevail in the end.
Prediction: Heat win 104-94
(Heat lead series 3-0)