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Where Geno Smith gets drafted will set the tone for other QBs.
More than any other position in the NFL draft, where quarterbacks end up being selected is largely need-driven. Typically, this drives quarterbacks up the draft board and into the early picks, but this year, the quarterback waterfall is tough to predict.
The only quarterback who appears to be a sure bet to be a first-round pick is West Virginia's Geno Smith, who could go as high as the No. 2 overall selection to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The other quarterbacks widely projected to be the next three selected—USC's Matt Barkley, Florida State's E.J. Manuel and Syracuse's Ryan Nassib—look as though they could go anywhere from the No. 8 overall pick to Round 2.
The Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills, who hold the No. 8 overall pick, appear to be the two most likely teams to set the quarterback wave in motion. If the Jaguars select Smith, there is a good chance that the Bills will draft one of those three quarterbacks at No. 8.
If the Jaguars pass up Smith, there is a definite possibility that he lands at No. 3 with the Oakland Raiders, No. 4 with the Philadelphia Eagles or even at No. 6 with the Cleveland Browns or No. 7 with the Arizona Cardinals, but it is unlikely he will fall past the Bills' selection.
If Smith is off the board, however, there is just as good of a chance that the Bills will trade down or decide not to draft a first-round quarterback. In that case, it is very possible that Barkley, Manuel and Nassib could all fall to Round 2, as there are no other obvious landing spots for quarterbacks in Round 1.
Outside of the top eight, the most likely scenario for another quarterback to go in the first round would be for a team to trade up into the late first round. Teams who could make a surprise quarterback pick earlier in the first round, however, include the New York Jets (No. 9 overall pick), San Diego Chargers (No. 11) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 13).