Kansas City Chiefs: Odds on the First Overall Pick
For the past 15 years, the team owning the first overall pick in the NFL draft has selected a player from one of just three positions: quarterback, left tackle or defensive end.
The 2013 NFL draft likely will not stray from that trend.
The Kansas City Chiefs own the first selection in this year's draft, and while new general manager John Dorsey has been busy this offseason in free agency and trading for quarterback Alex Smith, there remains holes in the roster to fill.
While it remains to be seen if Dorsey will truly stick to his declaration that he will take the "best player available" with the first overall pick, it's easy to see how he could justify selecting any one of five of prospects.
Here are the odds-on favorites to go first overall to the Chiefs in the 2013 draft.
5) Alec Ogletree, Georgia Inside Linebacker
Not since the 1988 selection of Auburn linebacker Aundray Bruce by the Atlanta Falcons has the top pick been used on a linebacker.
While he played 11 seasons in the league, Bruce started just 42 games in his career and was widely labeled a bust.
Perhaps the Chiefs biggest need which has not been addressed by the team this offseason is inside linebacker, and Ogletree is the best on the board. In the ten games he played in 2012, Ogletree had double-digit tackles in all but two games.
While Ogletree would definitely fill a big need in the middle of the Chiefs defense, like Bruce he's just not the surefire pick he needs to be to overlook the other talent ahead of him on the draft board.
Odds the Chiefs select Alec Ogletree first overall: 5%
4) Geno Smith, West Virginia Quarterback
Not since the Chiefs used the seventh overall pick in the 1983 NFL draft has the team used a first-round selection on a quarterback.
And while West Virginia's Geno Smith may be the unanimous pick as the best quarterback in this year's class, the Chiefs simply don't appear convinced that he can be their next franchise signal-caller.
The Chiefs have already invested this season's second-round pick and a conditional pick in 2014 on veteran and former first overall selection (2005) Alex Smith, so it doesn't appear likely that the Chiefs will select Geno Smith.
Of course, it is possible that the Chiefs could take a lesson from the 2004 San Diego Chargers draft playbook when they selected Eli Manning first overall and then traded him to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers (fourth overall) and three additional draft picks.
If the Chiefs can find a team they know would be willing to trade for Geno, they'll pick him. Otherwise, the odds aren't in his favor to be the 13th quarterback selected first overall in the past 16 seasons.
Odds the Chiefs select Geno Smith first overall: 10 percent
3) Star Lotulelei, Utah Defensive Lineman
The Chiefs spent their first-round selection in 2012 on Memphis defensive lineman Dontari Poe, who awed observers at the NFL Scouting Combine last season and made former coach Romeo Crennel a believer that he could become a disruptive nose tackle in the NFL.
This season, the college game's best defensive lineman, Star Lotulelei, wasn't able to compete at the combine because of a medical scare and has subsequently fallen down the draft board of a number of teams.
The difference between Lotulelei and Poe is the fact that Lotulelei regularly showed himself to be a disruptive force against top notch teams at the collegiate level. Perhaps most important for the Chiefs—who already have a lot invested in Poe—Lotulelei is versatile enough and good enough to play at both nose tackle and defensive end at a high level in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme.
While the selection of Lotulelei would certainly give Kansas City a top-notch young defensive line, it still appears fairly remote that he'll be a Chief considering the team renegotiated the contract of end Tyson Jackson and signed free-agent end Mike DeVito.
Odds the Chiefs select Star Lotulelei first overall: 15 percent
2) Eric Fisher, Central Michigan, Offensive Tackle
While it remains to be seen what the Chiefs will do with franchised left tackle Brandon Albert, they at the very least need to address the vacancy at right tackle created when they released Eric Winston.
Central Michigan's Eric Fisher would be an excellent candidate to step right in and start at right tackle opposite Albert for a year, and then perhaps make the move to the left side should the team decide to cut ties with Albert in 2014.
Perhaps the only knock on the physically gifted Fisher is that he didn't play against many NFL-caliber pass-rushers while at Central Michigan—something that came to light a little bit in his practices for the Senior Bowl.
Of course, the same argument about the level of competition was once be made about former Chippewas lineman Joe Staley, and all he did in 2012 was earn his second appearance to the Pro Bowl, which he had to miss because he was busy playing for a San Francisco 49ers team that made it to the Super Bowl.
Odds the Chiefs select Eric Fisher first overall: 20 percent
1) Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M, Offensive Tackle
How do you help a quarterback become the first-ever freshman to win the Heisman Trophy? You put the nation's best offensive lineman on his blind side, and you let him go to work.
That's how Texas A&M utilized Luke Joeckel, the best all-around college player in this year's draft. Joeckel initially cut his teeth in the college game against the best pass-rushers of the Big 12 before helping lead his Aggies to an 11-2 record in their inaugural season in the SEC. Joeckel allowed just two sacks in 2012.
Joeckel is an elite prospect with all the intangibles to go with the physical abilities teams look for in top NFL left tackles. Tackles Jake Long (2008) and Orlando Pace (1997) are the only two offensive linemen selected No. 1 overall since 1968; a number of observers believe Joeckel could be as good as either of them.
Odds the Chiefs select Luke Joeckel first overall: 50 percent