Assigning Odds to Every Potential Denver Broncos First-Round Pick

Jon Heath@ IApril 8, 2013

Assigning Odds to Every Potential Denver Broncos First-Round Pick

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    The 2013 NFL draft is a little more than two weeks away, and the Denver Broncos are scheduled to select 28th in the first round.

    Denver has a host of options, with team needs ranging from running back, defensive end, cornerback and middle linebacker to safety, defensive tackle and wide receiver. My seven-round mock draft for the team can be viewed here, but this piece will focus on the first round.

    What are the odds of Denver selecting Eddie Lacy in the first round?  Let's find out. 

Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

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    At the team's official site, Gray Caldwell has been monitoring the draft experts' choices for Denver in the first round. Of the 21 mocks Caldwell has been following, five have the team selecting Washington cornerback Desmond Trufant.

    Personally, I don't see the logic behind it.  Third-year cornerback Chris Harris has been receiving high praise, and Denver just signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this offseason.

    Champ Bailey is slowly losing a step, but the team has Harris, Rodgers-Cromartie, Tony Carter and second-year cornerback Omar Bolden behind him.  That is not inadequate depth.

    But the talking heads seem to think cornerback is a position of need, and they may be getting that information from the team.  The Denver Post's Mike Klis says the Broncos will draft a cornerback in the first three rounds of the draft. And while it's hard to tell if that is speculation or a scoop from the team, defensive back is expected to be addressed.

    If Denver does go cornerback, Trufant is a solid prospect.

    Odds of Trufant being drafted 28th: 25 percent

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

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    This isn't my first rodeo on the Eddie Lacy front—I have been lobbying for the team to select the Alabama running back all offseason, as Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno haven't been cutting it in short-yardage situations.

    Lacy may not be available by the time Denver comes on the clock, but's Clark Judge has him landing with the Broncos in his latest mock.  Lacy is a powerful running back that would be a great fit in Peyton Manning's offense. But the team's first-round draft plans remain vague.

    The Broncos are already contenders, so drafting based on need is not necessary.  The Broncos will be able to select the best player available. If Lacy is still on the board, it will probably be hard to pass on the 22-year-old RB.

    Odds of Lacy being drafted 28th: 25 percent

Manti Te'o, MLB, Notre Dame

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    You knew it was coming—that guy.

    Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o has been a big topic of discussion among fans leading up to the draft.  Will he cause unwanted media attention?  Is he overrated?  Is he worth a first-round pick?

    All of those questions remain to be answered, but he could end up a Denver Bronco, whether the fans like it or not.  ESPN's Todd McShay has Te'o going to the Broncos in his latest mock, and the Broncos could certainly use depth at the middle linebacker position. 

    Should Te'o be on Denver's radar?  That is up for debate.  But he remains an option. 

    Odds of Te'o being drafted 28th: 15 percent

Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU

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    Selected by the Broncos in the mock draft by National Football Post's Russ Lande, LSU defensive end Sam Montgomery seems to be more likely to land in Denver now that Elvis Dumervil is gone.

    When Dumervil signed with the Baltimore Ravens earlier in the offseason, it made defensive end a position of need.  In no rush to sign a free agent, the Broncos are primed to add a defensive end through the draft.

    Montgomery will probably be the best defensive end remaining when Denver selects late in the first round. 

    Odds of Montgomery being drafted 28th: 10 percent

Surprise Prospect or Trade

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    We can talk about the top candidates to land in Denver for hours, but at the end of the day, the team will probably make a move few of us were expecting.

    There were several prospects that were considered Denver's top targets last year, but the Broncos passed on all of them, opting to trade down and select little-known Derek Wolfe in the second round.  (Be honest, had you heard of Wolfe before draft day?) 

    The Broncos may trade down again this year, and if they don't, there is no guarantee that their selection will be used on a well-known prospect.  There is also the possibility of trading up.

    Denver has many options.

    Odds of Denver trading out or making a surprise pick: 25 percent