Assigning Odds to Every Potential Detroit Lions First-Round Pick

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Assigning Odds to Every Potential Detroit Lions First-Round Pick
Steve Dykes/Getty Images

To say mock drafts are an imprecise science is to give entirely too much credit to mock drafters (Science? Really?).

It's incredibly difficult to predict what NFL teams will do in the draft when even the teams themselves enter with little more than a big board and a philosophy. Still, it's easy to tell that certain picks are more likely than others.

So rather than try to select the exact player the Lions will target with their first-round pick, I will (this time) instead look at the most likely choices, then assign odds to the possibility that the Lions select them.

See, when in mock drafts, people select a single player at a certain pick, and the selection of that pick suggests, to some, that there is no way another pick fits there. That's never the case, of course. It's all about determining which player seems like the most likely fit.

This, then, is an opportunity for me to point out that no, I do not hate your favored mock draft pick (probably). I may even recognize the possibility that your favored first-round pick makes a bit of sense. They just aren't likely enough to actually choose as a legitimate mock draft pick.

Incidentally, getting to some of those lower-percentage players is one reason I've generally chosen to rotate my mock draft picks.

But we are less than three weeks from the actual draft, and draft boards are starting to show less and less variance. So now that we can reasonably narrow the Lions' possible first-rounders down to a couple of picks, let's talk odds.

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