I’m going to reference the Vegas odds throughout these slides, but I’d like to take this opportunity to remind you that betting on sports futures is one of the dumbest things you can do with your money.
To get a range of opinions, odds were pulled from three different websites—BetUS, VegasInsider and Bovada. On each site, the odds add up to somewhere between 150 and 175 percent. What that means is that if the teams are bet on proportionately, “the house” is pocketing between 50 and 75 percent of the money wagered regardless of who wins the tournament.
For purposes of comparison, the house edge in double-zero roulette is 5.26 percent, and roulette is widely regarded as the least financially intelligent table game that you can possibly play.
Long story short: Don’t take any of these bets, and especially don’t take Florida Gulf Coast at 75-1.
I’m probably going to come off as a crotchety old power-conference lover by hating on Florida Gulf Coast, but let’s all settle down about the Eagles. Their wins, though very impressive, weren’t completely unforeseeable.
Georgetown is a terrible tournament team. Whatever John Thompson III is doing, it isn’t working. The Hoyas have been eliminated by a double-digit seed in five consecutive tournament appearances. We all got sucked into Otto Porter mania and forgot about this simple fact.
And for whatever reason, the Mountain West Conference is just terrible in the NCAA tournament. Over the past four tournaments, they now have nine wins against 16 losses—and three of those wins came from BYU before it moved to the West Coast Conference.
It’s no surprise that Georgetown and San Diego State were early exits from this tournament. It just so happens that a high-flying FGCU team was the one to benefit from their perennial misfortunes.
What the Eagles haven’t faced thus far in the tournament is a team with an imposing big man—let alone three of them. The Florida Gators should eat them alive in the paint.
If you really think the Eagles could win this tournament if it were played out 75 times, you either live on FGCU’s campus or are delusional.