Sweet 16 2013 Predictions: Championship Odds for Every Team

Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistMarch 25, 2013

Sweet 16 2013 Predictions: Championship Odds for Every Team

0 of 16

    With the madness of the first weekend behind us—and boy, wasn't it fun?—it's time to take a closer look at the championship odds for the teams still standing in this year's NCAA tournament.

    The Sweet 16 is generally the round where the favorites separate themselves from the Cinderellas, though this year either Wichita State or La Salle will make the Elite Eight.

    And in a year when the elite teams recycled the top ranking, you could make the argument there are still nine teams with a legitimate shot to win the national title. 

    With that in mind, I've compiled championship odds from Bovada and given my own percentages for each team's chances of winning the title. It's a wide open field, folks, and it should prove to be just as much fun as the first weekend.

16. Florida Gulf Coast

1 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 100 to 1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 1 percent

    Analysis: Florida Gulf Coast is without question the story of the tournament. A No. 15 seed reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time is a huge deal. The Eagles have proven to be one of the most fun teams to watch in the tourney, bombing away for 159 total points in wins over Georgetown and San Diego State.

    But the Eagles now face Florida, one of the best teams in the country. If they manage to pull off the shocker they would play either Kansas or Michigan. Florida Gulf Coast has made this tournament a lot of fun, but the ride ends in the Sweet 16.

15. La Salle

2 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 66-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 1 percent

    Analysis: The Explorers are now the only team in this tournament that has won three games, as they survived the play-in round. But beating Boise State, Kansas State, Ole Miss and potentially Wichita State is one thing—knocking off the truly elite teams in the country is quite another.

    It's possible the Explorers reach the Final Four, but they aren't a threat to win a national championship.

14. Wichita State

3 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 40-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 1 percent

    Analysis: Wichita State has been impressive in wins over Pittsburgh and Gonzaga and very well could end up in the Final Four given how messy the West Region turned out. But I don't see them as a legitimate threat to win the national championship.

13. Oregon

4 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 33-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 2 percent

    Analysis: Here's my analysis for Oregon—the Ducks were dramatically under-seeded, looked deadly against Oklahoma State and Saint Louis and have been rewarded with a game against the nation's hottest (and arguably best) team, Louisville.

    Oregon plays excellent defense and they can fill it up when they get hot on offense, but no team has a more difficult road to the Final Four than the Ducks. Even if they beat Louisville, Michigan State or Duke is looming.

    Oregon has proven it was far better than its seed, but it isn't going to prove to be one of the last four teams standing this season.

12. Arizona

5 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 18-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 2 percent

    Analysis: Arizona has a legitimate opportunity to upset Ohio State. I don't see it happening, but if they do the Wildcats could make a shocking run to the Final Four.

    What hurts Arizona against the Buckeyes is that Ohio State is more efficient on both sides of the court, Aaron Craft is a good enough defender to frustrate Mark Lyons all game long and the Wildcats play good but not great defense. I don't think Arizona beats Ohio State.

    Even if the Wildcats do advance to the Final Four, I don't see them winning a game there. 

11. Syracuse

6 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 18-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 3 Percent

    Analysis: Syracuse is led by Hall of Fame coach Jim Boeheim, is efficient on both ends of the court (19th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com) and boasts a deep rotation.

    But Syracuse faces an Indiana team that is simply more talented and has the shooters from the outside to bomb away over the Orange zone. I don't see Syracuse getting by the Hoosiers.

10. Marquette

7 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 40-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 3 Percent

    Analysis: The Golden Eagles have done everything they were expected to do thus far, beating lesser seeds Davidson and Butler in two incredible finishes. Vander Blue has been nothing short of brilliant down the stretch in both games.

    Anytime a team is capable of winning games late, they're a threat. But Marquette's brutal defensive efficiency (52nd in the nation, according to KenPom) will be its downfall against a more talented Miami in the Sweet 16.

9. Kansas

8 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 12-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 7 Percent

    Analysis: Kansas is an incredibly talented team that lacks a true point guard. For that reason alone, I don't see the Jayhawks advancing past the Sweet 16. 

    Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey are studs, sure, but without that true point guard the Jayhawks have just the 32nd-most efficient offense in the country. I don't think the Jayhawks have an answer for Trey Burke, and thus I believe Michigan will end the Jayhawks' season.

8. Duke

9 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 11-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 7 Percent

    Analysis: Duke is an excellent team, but they are an excellent team in a brutal Midwest Region that includes Louisville, Michigan State and the upstart Oregon Ducks.

    I know how much of a difference Ryan Kelly makes for the Blue Devils. I know Coach K is a March wizard. I know Duke has the fourth-most efficient offense in the country, according to KenPom.

    But I don't think Duke gets past Michigan State. The Spartans are a smart, experienced, balanced and deep team that can match Duke in defensive intensity and on the boards. In a game that will likely come down to which team hits contested jump shots and makes fewer mistakes, I'll take the Spartans.

7. Michigan State

10 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 14-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 8 Percent

    Analysis: Few teams are more steady than Michigan State, and few coaches have a better track record in March than Tom Izzo. 

    The Spartans rarely beat themselves, play excellent defense and are efficient on both ends of the floor (21st in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom).

    Still, it all comes down to Keith Appling for the Spartans. If he gets hot, Michigan State is tough to beat. If he's cold, the Spartans lack a true go-to option offensively. Appling did leave the game against Memphis with a shoulder injury, but he's said he'll play against Duke.

    Look for the Spartans to grind out a win against the Blue Devils but fail to reach the Final Four.

6. Michigan

11 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 11-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 8 Percent

    Analysis: I believe Trey Burke alone will lead Michigan past Kansas, a team that has struggled against elite guards all season long.

    The Naismith finalist averages 18.8 points and 6.7 assists per game and has the ability to go Kemba Walker on this tournament. He's a large reason why the Wolverines have the second-most efficient offense in the country, according to KenPom.

    Unfortunately, the Wolverines have only the nation's 41st-most efficient defense. Offense can take you far, but generally speaking, defensively efficient teams win titles. Few teams are more explosive than Michigan, but I think the fun ends in the Elite Eight for the Wolverines.

5. Miami

12 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 15-2

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 8 Percent

    Analysis: For my money, Miami is the best of the Sweet 16 teams that won't reach the Final Four.

    Miami's length and athleticism make them a tough matchup for any team. The Hurricanes are a deep squad led by guards Shane Larkin and Durand Scott and are efficient on both ends of the court (15th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom).

    Unfortunately, the Canes will face the eventual national champion in the Elite Eight. Miami has put together a fantastic season, but I don't see it culminating in a trip to the Final Four.

4. Ohio State

13 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 15-2

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 10 Percent

    Analysis: The West Region has opened up for Ohio State. The Buckeyes will face a test against a talented Arizona squad, but the Buckeyes should advance past the Wildcats and face the winner of the La Salle-Wichita State game.

    Ohio State is incredibly efficient (according to KenPom, 12th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency), and has a true leader in Aaron Craft and a reliable scorer in Deshaun Thomas (19.5 points per game).

    Ohio State is the weakest of the four teams I'm projecting to reach the Final Four, but they also have the easiest path to get there. Battled-tested in the competitive Big Ten, the Buckeyes are not to be underestimated.

3. Florida

14 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 19-4

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 10 percent

    Analysis: Florida is the country's most efficient team. The Gators rank third in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and truly have few weaknesses across the board.

    The Gators go eight deep, boast excellent guard play behind Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario and Scottie Wilbekin, rarely turn the ball over and turn pressure defense into easy buckets in transition.

    This is a team that flew under the radar a bit since the SEC wasn't very good this year, but they have a legitimate shot to win it all. I'm projecting them to reach the Final Four.

2. Louisville

15 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 13-4

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 14 percent

    Analysis: Louisville may be Bovada's favorite to win the title, but I have them falling just short to the last team on this slideshow.

    According to KenPom, Louisville has the most efficient defense in the country and 10th-most efficient offense. The Cardinals are incredibly deep, are led by star guard Russ Smith (18.4 points per game) and are arguably the nation's hottest team, with 12 straight wins and 15 victories in the their last 16 games.

    I believe they'll reach the championship game, surviving the brutal Midwest Region and Ohio State to do so, but I think they'll fall just short of winning it all.

1. Indiana

16 of 16

    Bovada Odds to Win Title: 5-1

    Percentage Chance I Give Them to Win Title: 15 percent

    Analysis: Yes, I like the Hoosiers to win it all. Victor Oladipo is arguably the best all-around player in the country, Cody Zeller is a beast on the block and Christian Watford rounds out the nation's best frontcourt.

    According to KenPom, the Hoosiers have the nation's most efficient offense and 16th-most efficient defense. They survived the brutal Big Ten and proved against Temple that they can pull out close games in the end.

    Indiana has been my pick all along. The road to a championship won't be easy, but I believe in the Hoosiers.

     

    Link to Printable PDF

    Link to Live Bracket

    Follow all the exciting NCAA tournament action with March Madness Live

     

    Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are busting brackets and beating the buzzer all week long.

    Follow TRappaRT on Twitter