Latest Tournament Odds Post-Round of 64

Kerry MillerCollege Basketball National AnalystMarch 23, 2013

Latest Tournament Odds Post-Round of 64

0 of 32

    Let's wipe the slate clean.

    With six second-round losses by teams who received a No. 5 seed or better, those pre-tournament odds are feeling just a bit outdated. Though, if you still want to place a wager on Georgetown or New Mexico to win it all, I'd be glad to take your call.

    We're down to just 32 teams, and it's still anybody's game.

    Here are each team's odds of cutting down the nets on April 8.

Florida Gulf Coast

1 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    333-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    No matter who they play, they'll be a severe underdog the rest of the way. It wouldn't have seemed as difficult of a path for Georgetown, but this many consecutive wins seems impossible for Florida Gulf Coast.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Sherwood Brown and Bernard Thompson were just oozing confidence from the opening tip, carrying the Eagles with 47 combined points. The game was tied at 31 before Florida Gulf Coast went on a 21-2 run to bust the game wide open. Georgetown cut it to four in the final minute, but the Eagles hit just about every free throw down the stretch to keep the Hoyas from ever really getting within striking distance.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    They pull a prank by sneaking into the building the night before the championship game and cutting them down. It's been an absolutely unbelievable year for the Eagles, but let's be serious.

Harvard

2 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    200-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    They're playing in what is unanimously the weakest region, so they've got a better draw than many teams. They could beat Arizona on Saturday, but it's pretty tough to see them getting past Ohio State next week. 

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Crimson looked exactly how they did all season, scoring just one point below their season average while shooting four percentage points better than usual from behind the arc. The Lobos couldn't handle them on either side of the court, struggling to get their offense going and proving incapable of defending the drive-and-kick offense that Harvard ran all night.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    In the most insane tournament in the history of basketball, they keep shooting 44 percent from three-point range and if five more teams are willing to be frustrated by their extremely deliberate pace.

La Salle

3 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    150-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    The Explorers have landed in the perennial No. 12/13 battle, giving them about a 50/50 shot at advancing to the Sweet 16. It's not looking pretty from there, though, as they would likely need to get through Gonzaga and Ohio State before running into whoever survives the Midwest region.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Both on offense and defense, Kansas State could not figure out how to handle La Salle in the first half. However, the pressure appeared to get to the Explorers in the second half, as they let an 18-point halftime lead completely disappear before snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat. If you stopped paying attention at halftime, you probably feel a lot better about La Salle's chances than those of us who watched until the bitter end.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    The Explorers can build on what VCU did two years ago, advancing from the play-in game all the way to the Final Four. Heading into the day on Friday, their chances to win it all were listed at 400-to-1 on some sites, so they're getting about as much respect as the Rams did at a similar point in their magical run.

Ole Miss

4 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    125-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    You couldn't ask for a much better draw for a No. 12 seed. The No. 4 seed was eliminated in the first round and they would face the least formidable No. 1 seed to reach the Elite Eight. Still, the Rebels have already proven this season that they're capable of losing to just about anyone.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The end result was a lot prettier than the process. In a typical grind-it-out type of Wisconsin game, the Rebels prevailed with an 11-point win, but no one looked great. Marshall Henderson scored 19 points on 21 shots while no one else on the team put up more than 10 points or 10 shots.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Henderson catches fire. He's the biggest X-factor we've seen in the tournament in a long time. He's going to shoot a dozen threes whether they are going in or not. When he makes better than 27.5 percent of those shots, the Rebels are 18-2.

California

5 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    120-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    The Golden Bears are likely looking at a path of Syracuse-Indiana-Miami just to get to the Final Four. That's a pretty tall order for a team that went 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 in the non-conference portion of their season.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Between missed opportunities, missed free throws and miserable defense, you would be hard-pressed to say that either team looked good on Thursday night. Cal survived, but it hardly instilled confidence.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs get white-hot from deep and never cool off. In order to make up for that defense, we're talking "If Steph Curry came back and played college basketball right now" kind of hot.

Wichita State

6 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    115-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    As hideously awful as Gonzaga looked in their first game, the Shockers are hardly the favorite in their game. In fact, many lines right now have them as a 6.5-point underdog. Even if they get past that game, they would in all likelihood have Ohio State waiting for them two rounds later. It's not looking good for the Shockers. 

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Neither team could shoot—a combined 3-of-37 from long range—but Wichita State's defense was incredibly effective. During the season, Pitt's assist/turnover ratio was third-best in the nation at 1.52. Against the Shockers, Pitt registered a 0.53. Tekele Cotton literally made Trey Woodall cry after the game.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    They keep creating 10 steals per game and getting 41 free-throw attempts in the process.

Colorado State

7 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    110-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Oh, you know, it shouldn't be too bad. Just a game against Louisville on Saturday. And then probably  Saint Louis and Michigan State next week. Total walk in the park.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Colorado State finished the game with a plus-18 rebounding margin against the second-best rebounding team in the country. Missouri turned the ball over just five times and still lost the game by double-digits. By all accounts, the Rams owned the game from the outset.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    They keep out-rebounding teams by a 2-to-1 ratio and get more than four points from Colton Iverson against better teams than Missouri.

Oregon

8 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    100-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    I just looked up "difficult" in the dictionary, and all it had was a picture of the Midwest region. It was kind of bizarre. Best of luck to the Ducks in getting past Saint Louis and Louisville, let alone the other three games thereafter that they would need to win.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    They surprised no one in looking absolutely nothing like a No. 12 seed on Thursday night. Arsalan Kazemi was a giant in the paint, and Dominic Artis contributed in a significant way for the first time since returning from a foot injury. They just generally looked like a much better team than Oklahoma State.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    The committee retroactively swaps them with Wichita State, giving them a much more favorable draw moving forward. Short of that, it would take one heck of an inside-outside attack from Kazemi and Damyean Dotson and at least 30 minutes per game from Artis.

Illinois

9 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    100-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    There are certainly more difficult paths, but it's hardly favorable to have two of the favorites to win it all in your region.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Illini looked pretty good early on, scoring 39 points in the first 20:39. Unfortunately, they failed to score a single point in the next 10:45. Such is the peril of relying almost exclusively on three-point shooting.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson carry them from behind the arc. Neither Miami nor Indiana plays particularly aggressive perimeter defense, so the Illini should get a fair number of open looks in the games they would need to win to reach the Final Four.

Minnesota

10 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    90-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Difficulty is nothing new to the Golden Gophers. They had the second-strongest schedule during the regular season. Whether they could consistently beat those opponents is an entirely different story, however. Despite their rough season, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see them get past Florida and San Diego State to reach the Elite Eight. It also wouldn't be surprising to see them lose to Florida by 40 points. The Golden Gophers are the biggest wild card left in the field.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Granted, UCLA was playing without Jordan Adams due to a broken foot, but this was a bloodbath. Andre Hollins and Austin Hollins were unstoppable, while every non-Shabazz Muhammad Bruin was incredibly stoppable. Had they played more games like that, not only would they have avoided the bubble, but they could have been a top seed in the field.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Tubby Smith can actually get his guys motivated to play five more games. With Minnesota, it hasn't been an issue of talent—the effort has been pretty hit or miss all season.

Creighton

11 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    85-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Creighton has probably the least enviable path of all remaining teams. Duke hasn't been very dominant, but it's still Duke. After the Blue Devils, it's probably Michigan State and Louisville to get out of the Midwest region.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Creighton withstood Cincinnati's great defense and maintained a marginal lead for the entire second half. The clutch free-throw shooting down the stretch made it one of the more impressive wins of the tournament, even if it wasn't the most convincing of margins.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Doug McDermott averages 40 points per game and the Bluejays discover the ability to play some defense for a change. After all, it only takes a little bit of perimeter defense to rattle the Blue Devils.

Iowa State

12 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    80-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    If—and that's a big if—they can get past Ohio State, things start breaking nicely for the Cyclones. Neither Arizona nor Gonzaga boasts a remotely aggressive perimeter defense. 

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Iowa State dismantled Notre Dame, and hardly even relied on its three-point shooting in doing so. Yes, they made nine three-pointers, but that is below the Cyclones' season average. One would think that an 18-point win would mean they hit about 16 shots from long range.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    It's raining threes. They were second in the nation in three-point attempts per game, so you know they'll be shooting. It's just a matter of whether they'll be shooting the lights out.

Memphis

13 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    80-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    They'll need to get past Michigan State and probably Duke just in order to run into Louisville. It's been three full months since they've played anyone of that caliber.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Tigers absolutely dominated Saint Mary's in the paint defensively, tallying 12 blocks as a team and at least another dozen shots hopelessly altered. Unfortunately, they couldn't do much of anything on offense, scoring just 54 points and repeatedly missing free throws down the stretch.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    They can keep reaching their season average in steals (nine per game) while avoiding coming anywhere near their season average in turnovers (15 per game). Chris Crawford draining some three-pointers wouldn't hurt either.

Temple

14 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    75-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    The Owls will likely be done after Sunday's game against Indiana, but you have to like their chances if they can survive the weekend. They've already beaten Syracuse this season and nearly knocked off Kansas, which would likely be two of their three opponents before the championship game. If you insist on putting a few jelly beans on a long shot, Temple looks like a good choice.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Behind a great game from Khalif Wyatt, Temple opened up a 16-point halftime lead and survived several second-half surges from the Wolfpack. The Owls showed a lot of poise in only turning the ball over five times in the game while forcing 13 turnovers against a team that most would agree has a more talented roster of guys.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Someone other than Wyatt is willing and able to contribute in a big way. Scootie Randall and Anthony Lee were the team's next-highest scorers during the season, but they combined for just eight points and 10 rebounds in the opener.

Marquette

15 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    75-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Buzz Williams is a great coach, but nobody envies his draw of Bob McKillop, Brad Stevens and Jim Larranaga in the first three rounds. If Marquette even makes it to the Elite Eight, it would be a huge surprise.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Golden Eagles are definitely the luckiest team to still be in the tournament. When Junior Cadougan's three-point attempt missed with 1:37 remaining, they were down seven points and 1-of-12 from three for the day. They didn't miss another shot after that and ruined Davidson's dreams.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Vander Blue and Davante Gardner can each average more than 20 points a game the rest of the way.

Butler

16 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    70-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Does it really matter? We're talking about Butler in March here! If the Bulldogs could theoretically be beaten before the Final Four, though, it wouldn't be hard to imagine Miami's guards breaking them down, or Indiana getting revenge for earlier this year.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Bulldogs struggled to hit anything in the first 30 minutes, but coasted to victory in the end by completely shutting down Bucknell's Mike Muscala. Andrew Smith deserves a Medal of Honor for the work he did on Muscala all game.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Brad Stevens doesn't mysteriously retire before the end of the tournament.

San Diego State

17 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    65-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    If this was a round-robin tournament, San Diego State's odds would be much longer. However, because they just need to get past Florida Gulf Coast to reach the Sweet 16, the Aztecs' chances are a bit improved. Beyond that game, though, they're looking at potential games against Florida and Kansas, so it's not an easy journey for very long.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Aztecs were extremely efficient from the free-throw line, hitting 16-of-17 attempts. They also held Oklahoma's Steven Pledger to just three points on 1-of-8 shooting. The game was tied with 10:41 remaining, but San Diego State closed the game on a 22-7 run.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    J.J. O'Brien and Deshawn Stephens show up in a big way. Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley are each going to score more than a dozen points more often than not, but they need to get to 70 points somehow.

Arizona

18 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    60-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Mad respect to Harvard for knocking off New Mexico, but Arizona now has one of the easiest paths to the Sweet 16 in the weakest of the four regions. Ohio State might be the only thing standing between the Wildcats and the Final Four.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Belmont was one of the most popular first-round upsets, but it didn't faze the Wildcats nor stop them from out-rebounding Belmont by a 42 to 15 margin. The game was never even close.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Big man Kaleb Tarczewski can register three or four double-doubles, despite not having one yet this season.

North Carolina

19 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    50-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    If it wasn't for Oregon, North Carolina would have been the most egregious mis-seeding in the tournament. As is, the Tar Heels would need to beat Kansas in Kansas City just to make the Sweet 16...and they won't much like the opponent they find there.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Thirteen minutes into the game, North Carolina had a 20-point lead and was well on its way to a romp. With 13 minutes remaining, the Tar Heels trailed by one. In a rare change of pace, they came out firing and then fell apart in the middle of the game. They won't be able to afford any letdowns on Sunday.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston continue to find their stroke. In North Carolina's last four games, Bullock and Hairston have combined to hit 29 of 61 three-point attempts. There is no limit to either guy's range, either.

VCU

20 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    30-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Between Michigan, Kansas and Florida, the Rams will likely need to go through three straight teams that were projected for a No. 1 seed at one point or another this season. That's just to reach the Final Four. It might take wins over five straight ranked opponents to win it all.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Akron was playing without its starting point guard, and it showed. The Zips had six more turnovers than field goals made. VCU won the game by 46, and that makes it sound closer than it actually was.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Havoc continues causing serious issues for each and every opponent. The Rams are nowhere near as good when they aren't forcing steals and getting fast-break buckets, but we'll see how well the likes of Trey Burke and/or Ben McLemore can handle that kind of constant pressure.

Saint Louis

21 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    25-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    A prohibitive favorite to make a run to the Final Four prior to Selection Sunday, the Billikens got a rough draw and will more than likely play Louisville in the Sweet 16. They're very good, but are they knock-off-Louisville good?

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Dwayne Evans was unbelievably efficient and effective with his mid-range jumpers, neutralizing New Mexico State's 7'5" behemoth. They played great defense and distributed the ball about as well as you can expect a team to.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Kwamain Mitchell and Jordair Jett can continually outplay opposing guards while maintaining a 3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio.

Syracuse

22 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    25-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    They should definitely be able to beat Cal, but you have to think Indiana would destroy their 2-3 zone. Get past Indiana, though, and it might be smooth sailing into the championship game.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    The Orange held a 38.5 percent three-point shooting team to just 4-of-31 from deep while only allowing 34 points in the entire game. They took a 10-point lead just 5:05 into the game, and Montana never got it back to single digits.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    The defense is effective and Michael Carter-Williams can avoid the turnover and ill-advised shot bug that has plagued him at times this season. Syracuse is at its best when he's creating shots for others rather than for himself. MCW has 4.4 assists per game in nine losses, and 9.2 assists in the 27 wins.

Michigan

23 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    20-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Aside from VCU and every non-Louisville team in the Midwest, Michigan has the most challenging road of the teams still standing. Surviving VCU on Saturday would merely earn them a likely Sweet 16 battle with Kansas.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Save for a scary fall that sent him to the locker room, Trey Burke was nearly invisible in the game. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III stepped up in his stead, scoring 21 points each. Nate Wolters never got going for South Dakota State, and the Wolverines advanced without much difficulty.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    At least two or three of their four primary scorers show up for each game. Burke, Hardaway and Nik Stauskas each shoot better than 38 percent from downtown and can take turns carrying them to victory on any given night.

Michigan State

24 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    20-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    It's tempting to look ahead to games against Duke and Louisville, but the Spartans better not overlook Memphis. There are no nights off in the Midwest.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    I admittedly stopped watching at halftime because the Spartans dominated the first half so effortlessly. Derrick Nix was everywhere in leading the team to a plus-24 rebounding margin. If not for Ben Boggs coming off the bench to score 12 points in the final 3:06 of the game, Michigan State would've won by at least 20.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Keith Appling can start playing like a starting point guard from a power conference. In his last 10 games, he's averaging 2.0 assists and 2.1 turnovers per game.

Duke

25 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    15-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    We can look ahead, but hopefully they don't, because Creighton would love nothing more than to oust the Blue Devils. Should Duke survive that next game on Sunday, it'll likely be followed by games against Michigan State and Louisville. Saying they should win it all once out of 15 tries seems pretty generous.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee played excellent games, scoring 49 of Duke's 73 points. Ryan Kelly and Rasheed Sulaimon were non-factors, though, which contributed to Duke's inability to pull away from the Great Danes. Against a better team, that two-man show isn't going to cut it.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Kelly can create matchup nightmares for each and every opponent. If Kelly is being neutralized, Duke is just an above-average team with poor interior defense.

Gonzaga

26 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    12-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    Unless you're really buying the Marshall Henderson hype, the only challenge left before the Final Four would be Ohio State in the Elite Eight. Put Gonzaga in a different region, and the odds probably jump to 25-to-1 or longer.

     

    How They Looked in Opener

    Dreadful doesn't even do justice to how poorly Gonzaga played on Thursday. Maybe it was No. 1 seed jitters or maybe the Bulldogs really aren't as good as some people seem to believe. Either way, Southern gave them a huge scare.

     

    Could Cut Down the Nets If...

    Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. show up in a big way in the most difficult games. Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris are great players, but they can't do it alone.

Kansas

27 of 32

    Odds to Win it All

    10-to-1

     

    Difficulty of Path

    I would argue that Kansas has