NCAA Tournament: Over-Seeded Teams to Be Wary of in Bracket Predictions

Dan TalintyreSenior Analyst IIMarch 21, 2013

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 16:  Roosevelt Jones  #21 of the Butler Bulldogs handles the ball against St. Louis Billikens in the second half during the Atlantic 10 Basketball Tournament - Semifinals at the Barclays Center on March 16, 2013 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jason Szenes/Getty Images)
Jason Szenes/Getty Images

Every year, the NCAA releases its seeds for the upcoming March Madness tournament and every year, it gets some teams higher than they should be.

When it's the AP Top 25 poll, it doesn't matter. But when it affects their positioning for the nation's most prestigious college basketball tournament and changes who they'll play in the various rounds, then it matters.

While it might not seem like a big deal, the over-seeding of certain teams can have a profound impact on the various bracket predictions people make. After all, if a No. 6 seed really is more like a No. 8 seed, then it gives credence for the No. 11 seed they're playing to have a a greater chance at the upset.

Which teams have been over-seeded in the tournament this year, and could come back as potential bracket busters later on in March Madness?

Read on and find out.


Butler (East Region, No. 6 Seed)

After playing a relatively weak schedule and still only emerging with a moderately impressive record, Butler has been incredibly over-seeded in the 2013 tournament.

The Bulldogs did score impressive wins over Indiana and Gonzaga earlier in the year, but have struggled greatly since the latter of those wins. Given how little dominance they've exerted over their opponents in the past month or so, it's hard to see Butler as a genuine No. 6 seed.

Their round of 64 opponent in Bucknell is a very talented team that could well upset them here—all because they shouldn't be seeded that high. 


Marquette (East Region, No. 3 Seed)

The Golden Eagles emerged as the No. 3 seed, thanks to an overvalued Big East region and a home record that should have little effect on the tournament here. Marquette went 16-0 at home, but sputtered on the road in 2013—emerging with a 7-8 record.

Moreover, the Golden Eagles finished just 2-4 against RPI Top 25 teams and 10-7 against RPI Top 100 teams—making them incredibly over-seeded as a Top 12 team.

Davidson, their second-round opponent, has won 17 straight games and possesses the shooting talent needed to knock off the Golden Eagles. So don't be surprised if that "top" seed falls because in reality, Marquette shouldn't have been seeded that high to start.


UCLA (South Region, No. 6 Seed)

An over-seeded UCLA  squad, coupled with an under-seeded Minnesota team, makes for a fascinating second round matchup that could see either team advance to the next round.

UCLA is without Jordan Adams, and while the Bruins do have Shabazz Muhammad, they will find themselves left wanting at times on offensive, especially given the talent that the Golden Gophers bring to the table, which they showed against Indiana earlier in the year.

Statistics guru Ken Pom ranks the Bruins as the 46th-best team in the country (almost double their seeding here) with the 39th-ranked offense and the 65th-ranked defense.

By comparison, Minnesota is ranked 23rd in the country (almost half the Golden Gophers' seeding here) with the 26th-ranked offense and the 46th-ranked defense. 

There's definitely a potential upset brewing in this one.


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Which teams do you think are over-seeded in the 2013 NCAA Tournament?

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