Opening Day has come and gone, and if you look at the box scores from yesterday's games, you'll notice the Orioles started Luis Hernandez at shortstop. The Giants went with Brian Bocock at the position.
I have nothing personal against Hernandez and Bocock—by all accounts they're hard-working individuals who give their all—but the fact that their names were on Opening Day lineup cards is nothing short of ludicrous.
First you have Hernandez. He is a good defensive shortstop, but he isn't the next Ozzie Smith with the glove. It's a shame he's not, because Hernandez would need to be an amazing defender to make up for his complete lack of offense.
Hernandez hit .242/.276/.316 in 393 plate appearances last year...at Double-A. He isn't a plus baserunner either—he was 6-for-11 in steals in AA ball. Further damning is that Hernandez, at 23, was slightly above the average age for the level.
By comparison, last year the worst starting MLB shortstop (offensively) was Adam Everett of Houston, who hit .232/.281/.318—very similar to Hernandez's AA performance. Thus, even if Hernandez made the jump to MLB from AA without losing any offensive performance, he would be the worst starting shortstop, and possibly worst starting position player, in the majors in 2008.
Or so I thought.
Then, I saw this article.
Yep, the Giants really one-upped the Orioles this time. They handed their shortstop job to Bocock, who hit .220/.293/.328 last year in the Cal League. That's right, Giants' fans, your Opening Day shortstop put up a 621 OPS last year in the best hitter's league in baseball, good for the worst mark of any player in that league. Bocock shouldn't have even been invited to Spring Training, let alone make the team.
Speaking of Spring Training, Bocock hit a ridiculous .188, so it's not like he's turned around. Giants brass ignored this and simply raved about how he hadn't committed any errors. Yes Bocock, like Hernandez, is a good defender, but starting Bocock is just suicidal for everyone involved. He was 22 last year, so he, like Hernandez, wasn't even young for the level.
There's no reason for any organization to start Hernandez or Bocock, or even have them on the major league team right now. And once again, I have nothing against either of them and hope they'll prove me wrong.
They didn't ask to be hired for jobs they're not capable of doing acceptably. This is on Andy MacPhail and Brian Sabean, the Orioles' and Giants' respective GMs.
The circumstances for each of the situations vary a bit, so I'll examine them separately.
Hernandez became the starter for the Orioles when Miguel Tejada was traded. He did hit .290/.300/.362 for the Orioles in 71 PAs last year, but he walked just once and showed no power. His high batting average was a product of a small sample size—he's never hit anything near that in the minors—and will come down in a full year.
Apparently the Orioles didn't think the average was a fluke, and announced basically right after the Tejada trade that Hernandez was the starting shortstop.
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8 months ago
Great Article... I am sorry for the Giants and Orioles and how they have turned to these two for the SS duties but I also feel bad for the state each is in... The O's will turn it around with the young guns in the OF in Jones and Markakis but who will the Giants go to? Nyjer Morgan and Dave Roberts? If you combined the two teams I still do not see them making the playoffs there is rough times ahead for fans of these two organizations.
from 8 months ago
The Giants have better players than they think. They have Ochoa who can play short, Scott McClain who could play 1B and hit 30 HR, Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand, and some good pitching. Still, yeah, I don't see a San Francisco Orioles team fielding an even average lineup. Cain-Lincecum-Zito-Guthrie-(Sanchez/Correia/Cabrera) would be a decent rotation though, and they could have a good bullpen.
The O's may be getting better now with the trades, as I mentioned towards the ending of the article. However, the Giants are worse off because they aren't even young, they don't have much of a farm system aside from Angel Villalona, and they have a much higher payroll.
Don't feel sorry for them. They have money, they have just mismanaged it. It is their fault for it.
from 8 months ago
I haven't heard much, or really anything at all, about Ochoa or McClain. You seem pretty high on both of them. What's the story and why haven't the Giants turned to either of them yet?
from 8 months ago
Ok, I just looked up McClain and he's 36, hardly seems like the answer at 1B. Ochoa looks interesting though...
8 months ago
Brian Bocock is better than his numbers represent. The Giants can see this because they are there with him. Bocock had a good first game. He is by far the best defensive player on the team. Vizquel included.
In every league his intelligence and diligence has made him a potent offensive weapon as well. You can't base opinions on his short stay a the last level. Trust someone who has seen him play for 17 of those 22 young years.
from 8 months ago
Like I said dude, I have nothing against Bocock, I hear he's a good guy and hard worker, and hope he does well, but Ochoa deserves the job first, there's just no denying it. And yeah I credited him with good defense, but I find it nearly impossible to believe that you can be a productive major leaguer after not being a productive Cal Leaguer.
8 months ago
Excellent work, some very deep research there.
I saw both of them in an article on ESPN about 9 surprises that made the MLB opening day rosters.
You shed some light on some very interesting things about the two teams. It's really amazing..
Being a fan of Cleveland where the GM is always signing guys to minor league deals, even if they have no chance at even making the final roster, you kinda don't realize the importance of those signings until you see a team like Baltimore screw it up.
Why sign Luis Rivas?! Why the hell not?! What if the worst happens! Great job man.
from 8 months ago
Haha, Rivas, yeah, he isn't much, but he's sure better than these guys. You don't even really need to sign them straight off, you just need to have the sense to trade for one in situations like this. A good example is the A's acquisition of my favorite player, Jack Cust, last year. There are plenty of guys who you can get for nothing or almost nothing who could be way ahead of not just Hernandez and Bocock, but many other big leaguers as well--just like Cust last year.
Thanks for the feedback--good to know my work is well-received.
8 months ago
Dave, McClain is old but he is better than alot of 1Bs. The Giants aren't playing to win, so they might as well put his bat in so they have at least one power bat. He would have the most homers on the team if they played him. And hell, he's hit way over three hundred minor league homers, he deserves a shot.
8 months ago
Nathaniel, Reading a little bit of your back ground, you have an opinion on Ruth and Mays but you were not "alive" when Unitas and Montana played. So with that said, your research is like all the other "front-office guys", you can look at the numbers but don't have a clue about the sport. Maybe if you knew why Ochoa wasn't asked to stay, then you might have a different opinion. And being from VA not to mention going to JMU, most fans would pull for the home town guy. Have you ever played baseball?
Bo's fan.
from 8 months ago
Look, I'm a student of the game, whether I've played it or not. And if you're his fan, you're not exactly unbiased. For the millionth time, this isn't about him or Hernandez, it's about the front offices. I don't care how much you like him, you have to admit he didn't hit in the Cal League last year, and there's no way he will hit this year. I hope he proves me wrong, and I know he's fast and plays great defense, but he just hasn't hit. Stats aren't everything, but they are something.
By the way, if you would happen to know why Ochoa was sent down, I'd like to know. The decision makes so little sense, any clues to why they made it would help me have more faith in this--not that I really care about the Giants, but I do like to see teams managed well.
0-4, three K's last game. Not doing well yet.
from 8 months ago
As far as the whole Ruth-Mays-Unitas-Montana thing in my background, the reason for that is that I follow baseball more than football and I know that Ruth had 714 HR when no one else had more than 400. I know Mays hit 660 which is less anyway. Since I know more, I have more of an opinion. I've never looked at Unitas' or Montana's stats or how they were relative to their contemporaries so I have less to say about that.
As far as being from around here, yeah, it's cool that a Harrisonburg guy made the big leagues, but that doesn't mean he deserves it. I have no ill will towards in the majors except when they're playing the A's, I hope they all do well, but that doesn't stop me from being able to look at who is likely to help their team the most. Just because I haven't played much organized baseball doesn't mean I don't research the hell out of it every day. This past offseason, the Angels hired a GM who had never played baseball. He started as an intern for God's sake. Just because you don't have internal experience doesn't mean you can't know a ton about the game and who should play it.
7 months ago
Bocock is leading the team in OBP, which is just as important if not more important than batting average, so get off his back.
from 7 months ago
Noticed it. I have two reactions:
1.) Good for him.
2.) 8th place hitters in the NL get walked more than they would otherwise because they hit in front of pitchers.
Also, note that he doesn't have an extra-base hit yet, leaving his slugging at .200. OBP is nice, but if you never hit the ball for any power at all, you can't be that great.
Geez, a lot of Bocock fans out there. You know, Luis Hernandez has had a few hits too; don't see anyone defending him lol.
All in all, I'll give you that Bocock has been PASSABLE so far, and that says a lot about him and his mental toughness. Everything is still in small samples, though, and he isn't hitting or slugging, and if he hit anywhere but 8th the walks would go down (he doesn't have a big history of walking a lot). At least Bochy hits him 8th to help his OBP a bit; there was talk of him hitting first or second at the time I wrote this article, which would have been a disaster.
We'll see if the OBP holds up until Vizquel returns. You can't make anything good or bad from a two-week sample, but he should get another two weeks or more to keep that OBP in the .400 range if it's for real.
7 months ago
"They didn't ask to be hired for jobs they're not capable of doing acceptably". It's tough to say you hit the nail on the head with this piece of writing. The title of the article should be "The suicide of a writer's credibility". You act like Bocock and Hernandez are missing their arms and their eyes. I don't think it even needs to be said about the start Hernandez is having and if you are just going to look at numbers how about how Bocock hit .324 at Stetson his junior year or over .500 his senior year of high school. Yeah the competition is much different but if you look at those numbers and say there is little to no potential you are an idiot. (not to mention their defensive skills, which are obviously their biggest assets) How many errors have they made between them? 10-15? Ohhhh nevermind they've made 1 error combined. Yeah you're right "not capable of doing the job 'acceptably' ".
from 7 months ago
You're going to throw HS and college numbers at me? Come on, man, there isn't a hitter in baseball who didn't do well in college and HS. I give them credit for both being good defensive players, but at the same time Ivan Ochoa is a great defender too and he can actually sort of hit. And by that I mean he didn't put up 621 OPS in the Cal League last year. If Bocock is so great, why couldn't he beat that? Why isn't he above the Mendoza line? Why do neither Hernandez nor Bocock have an extra-base hit?
What the hell are you talking about, me destroying my credibility. You're destroying your credibility by pretending that one week of stats and some old college numbers mean something. You're telling me that 7 games this year is what I should look at to determine this, not 87 last year? If that's the case, we should all give the batting title to Luke Scott right now. Seriously, you're just picking out where they did well. You can make stats say anything.
Name ten worse hitters currently in the majors than these two. I'd like to see it.
You don't even acknowledge the fact that I give them the potential to be decent glove-oriented utility guys down the line if they hit better, but the minor league track record simply is not there for either.
On a side note, yeah they both defend well, but you're seriously going to tell me about defense after 7 games? You're seriously going to tell me 1 error in 7 games means something? Maybe if you had a range factor, or FRAA, or something, it would at least be more credible.
Seriously. Ten Hitters in MLB worse than these two. It's not that there is "no potential" or "no talent" here; it's just that they currently have nowhere near enough offensive ability (NO EXTRA-BASE HITS COMBINED!) to be in the bigs right now. It's too early to pass true judgment on Bocock, as he's less than two years out of being drafted. But when Baseball America says you are going to "struggle to hit even .260 in the bigs down the lone" it's not good. But I suppose they're idiots too, and we should all look to you for scouting advice. Yeah, let's lead them both off while we're at it.
from 7 months ago
But just wait a second. If you seriously see something in these two players that I don't, where exactly in this article is my logic wrong? And I don't mean in phrases like "can't do this acceptably," I mean, I said that a hitter with a 621 OPS in the Cal League shouldn't go straight up to the majors and be a starting SS even though he's a plus defender. You apparently seem to disagree, but why? Show me a list of hitters who have successful jumped from High-A to the majors in the first place. Then show me a list of hitters who go from having a sub-650 High-A OPS to big league regulars. I'd be surprised if you could find one who went on to success. And look, if they go out and hit well, OK, you got me on two players. Just because I gave the article a flashy title doesn't mean all my credibility goes out the window for that. Everyone makes their "season predictions" every year and they're always wrong; they don't "lose their credibility" for that. I looked at every resource available to me and concluded these two can't hit big league pitching. If I'm wrong, that means all of the many sources that I consulted are wrong. Let's shut down Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus!
Even with that said, I'd be shocked to see either with an OPS over 750 in three weeks. But if they hit, they hit...
7 months ago
It just blows me away that you throw out a title to an article "the suicide of two organizations". I would be 99% sure those teams wern't capable of winning 2 of their first 15 games if I was going to throw out something like that. Obviously there were alot of "baseball people" in the Giants spring camp that felt like he fit their needs better then Ochoa. What can you possibly say to defend that? You act like the Giants threw 10 names in a hat and pulled out their shortstop to start the year.
By the way I agree high school numbers mean very little, but your acting like these guys don't have arms because what, you saw half a minor league season? O wait you didn't see it, you looked at a few numbers on a website.
So if you don't want to listen to all of the "baseball people" which I would guarantee you are not. You may be a numbers nerd, but you would need to change your pants if you saw even an 80 mph fastball. Don't get me wrong number's people can be successful in baseball if they mix the numbers with their "baseball people's" opinions. It doesn't seem like you understand that concept.
But just to clarify....I should listen to baseball america writers, and not people that work with and see their players everyday???
from 7 months ago
OK fine on the title. I guess we have different standards on that. All I meant by it was that they're just hurting themselves by doing this.
I'm not really a "numbers nerd;" read my bio as far as that's concerned. I used to think stats are everything, but I don't anymore. However, Bocock's scouting reports offensively state that "his swing path makes it very tough for him to hit breaking balls" and "developing his bat will be a challenge," which seems to be consistent with the stats.
And sure I should believe BA over the Giants. Two reasons why:
1.) The Giants are terrible. They haven't established a track record of success to where I can give them the benefit of the doubt. All the success of the Sabean era has been tied to Barry Bonds. By your logic, teams never make bad decisions. Should we never second-guess?
2.) Baseball America is a neutral source. They have no money invested in Bocock, Ochoa, or any of these guys. Basically, they're less biased.
I do see your point on this, and notice my comment on Hernandez how he is the best option at short for the Orioles. They can still upgrade, though.
Forget Ochoa for a second. If you pick the top thirty shortstops in baseball, is Brian Bocock one of them? Is Luis Hernandez one of them? If not, those teams need to upgrade at SS.
from 7 months ago
OK fine on the title. I guess we have different standards on that. All I meant by it was that they're just hurting themselves by doing this.
I'm not really a "numbers nerd;" read my bio as far as that's concerned. I used to think stats are everything, but I don't anymore. However, Bocock's scouting reports offensively state that "his swing path makes it very tough for him to hit breaking balls" and "developing his bat will be a challenge," which seems to be consistent with the stats.
And sure I should believe BA over the Giants. Two reasons why:
1.) The Giants are terrible. They haven't established a track record of success to where I can give them the benefit of the doubt. All the success of the Sabean era has been tied to Barry Bonds. By your logic, teams never make bad decisions. Should we never second-guess?
2.) Baseball America is a neutral source. They have no money invested in Bocock, Ochoa, or any of these guys. Basically, they're less biased.
I do see your point on this, and notice my comment on Hernandez how he is the best option at short for the Orioles. They can still upgrade, though.
Forget Ochoa for a second. If you pick the top thirty shortstops in baseball, is Brian Bocock one of them? Is Luis Hernandez one of them? If not, those teams need to upgrade at SS.
from 7 months ago
Ahh, finally you say something I can almost sort of agree with.
Going paragraph-by-paragraph:
OK, we have different standards for the title. Give me a break. All I meant was that they're hurting themselves.
I've seen Hernandez hit in the majors last year, Bocock this spring.
I'm not really a "numbers nerd" anymore; read my bio on my opinions on numbers. I'm going to write an article on it soon. I read scouting reports all the time, and I've seen plenty of film of these guys. I've watched any player in AAA or MLB last few years, so I don't just look at a website and paste numbers in. In Bocock's case, his scouting report says "his swing path makes breaking balls a big challenge" and "developing his bat will be difficult." In that case, the scouting report and the stats agree that his bat isn't major-league ready, something my own eyes confirmed.
Two reasons two believe BA over the Giants:
1.) The Giants' management has never come up with a good hitter aside from Barry Bonds, and no one thinks they're doing a good job. Why should I trust them?
2.) BA has no monetary investment in Bocock. Baseball Prospectus has no monetary investment in Bocock. Keeping a distance from him takes out bias.
By your logic here, every team makes the right decision every time, and we should never second-guess anything.
And hey, I'm not perfect, so maybe I'm wrong. I'm just a freshman in college drawing the best conclusion I can.
7 months ago
One of the top thirty offensivley??? Absolutely not, I agree with you. However, it seems the Giants approach is to try to play as solid as possible in the field to help scrap together a few wins when their top starters throw well. If that is their strategy(i'm not admiting it's a great strategy) it would seem Bocock makes the most sense (without Omar).
from 7 months ago
But Ochoa is as good defensively and not a black hole at the plate--which is my point.
7 months ago
Ahh sorry, it didn't post, then I guess it did, so I wound up rephrasing myself.
7 months ago
I disagree, I do not think Ochoa is just as good defensively. But that's just opinion. And mabye Ochoa made alot of errors during spring training....Do you know that he didn't???? Mabye he told Bocci he was a piece of dog poo. There are so many factors that come into play besides what you see on paper and during games, you don't even realize. Not "you" personally, alot of people.
from 7 months ago
Absolutely agree with you there, aside from the "Ochoa is not as good defensively." I don't doubt that the Giants have their reasons; my point in this article is simply that I haven't seen or heard a reason (and I've done some looking) that mitigates the offensive gap. Maybe there is some off-the-field thing, but he hasn't been suspended. Ochoa was also sent down pretty quick, so I doubt he made "a lot of errors" in that time.
One thing Bocock does beat Ochoa in is basestealing, maybe that's something, I don't know.
7 months ago
Well I'll find out for you, I'll get back to you in a few days. While your at it keep your writing up, you have a nice style, just stop writing headlines that make people want to rip your head off. It's pretty rough when you try to throw a good kid trying to make it under the bus with an off the wall headline.
from 7 months ago
Yeah...understand that I'm not going after Bocock/Hernandez here--they have their virtues, but they don't belong on a big league roster, and I hope they do well. It's more of an attack on the management. Do you like my other articles at all?
7 months ago
Stop saying you hope Bocock and Hernandez do well in the majors and then bash them in the same paragraph. If you really wanted them to do well you wouldn't be writing all this crap about them to make them look bad.
from 7 months ago
Oh, and by the way, read something else that I've written, like my Quad-A article or my AAA roster report, or my A's breakdowns or something that I didn't give a flashy title.
Had I titled this something more neutral, like "Giants and Orioles Make Questionable SS Choices" would you have agreed with the article then?
7 months ago
Well, I mean it like this:
As someone who has been through a lot in 18 years (you don't know my life, don't tell me I haven't) I know how it feels to fail, and that sucks. I don't wish that on anyone.
At the same time:
1.) I don't think the odds of not failing are in their favor.
2.) There are people who deserve the jobs more.
That said, this isn't personal against either of them. Seriously, can you imagine how Bocock must have felt? He had just flopped in San Jose, and now they're giving him a month in the majors as a starter? If I was in that situation, I would want to do well, and therefore I wish him the best. However, that isn't going to stop me from blasting the decision and doubting his chances at succeeding. So don't say I can't personally hope they do well and objectively think this is ridiculous at the same time, because, well, that's how I feel about it.
7 months ago
Great article, Nathaniel, it's really unfathomable how Bocock was named the starting SS. But I hope he hits 74 HR! :-)
from 7 months ago
Thanks alot for the compliment--I've taken some heat on this, as you can see.
4 months ago
this is the god damn worst artical ive ever fuckn seen, no disrespect. now bocock hit high a last year and hittin has never really been is game, he is an unbelievable defender and frandensen was not gonna be the opening day ss even if he did get hurt, he made to many errors in spring, bocock will be back up in the pros one day, and showin your sorry asses the he can hit lights out
from 4 months ago
Okay, whatever, he should try hitting over .200 in Triple-A first.
from 4 months ago
Ochoa is the answer to the Giants SS problems because he's Bocock with a bat. Bocock can't hit at all. Why does everyone here like him so much? Seriously...And he was terrible at High-A last year; he did hit well at Low-A though, I'll give you that. Maybe he will hit someday, but he's been rushed way too fast (that's not his fault, the organization's promotions have been unbelievably poor this year). Maybe if he had three full years in High-A/AA he could develop enough of a bat to hit eighth in a big league lineup, but that's seriously it. How much does he pay you guys? What's so great about him? I just don't get it...everyone hates Jack Cust and loves Brian Bocock...what a backward world.
from about 1 month ago
I agree with Blaza
4 months ago
Bocock was the starting SS because he was a player the Giants could afford to rush to the majors, they didnt care how they fared this season, it was so that players like Ochoa, Burris, and Veldez could develop at their own rate so that the Giants wouldnt ruin the development of a top prospect just to fill a hole. Now that Ochoa is at the majors and Burriss is hitting well, it shows that Bocock did his job by holding the position until the players with a real future were ready. If Bocock actually produced, that would just be a plus for the Giants, though they never expected him to do so.
Either way it's a moot point, both organizations were not expecting to win, when their young players are ready, the league will be in for a surprise
from 4 months ago
A fair point, but given Ochoa's extensive AAA experience and lack of extreme upside, he still would have made a better choice on opening day anyway in my opinion. But at least yours is a balanced point of view--better than I could say for most of the comments on this.
4 months ago
Thanks, im a big Giants fan but i know that Bocock wasnt in the big plan for the team so his stuggles weren't really a big loss for the team
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