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GSP is one of the best fighters in the world at staying in the moment during a fight. He wins the mental bout the majority of the time, but Diaz has gotten in his head. That will be the biggest factor.
I do not suspect GSP will do anything stupid because of this, but it will make a difference because GSP will not play is 100 percent safe.
He wants to punish Diaz. GSP wants to hurt him.
On the feet and on the ground, GSP will take more of a risk in trying to hit the challenger. That is where openings happen. Diaz will get the chance to capitalize on small windows of opportunity to finish the champion by knockout or submission.
If Diaz did not get in his head it is likely GSP would simply rely on his wrestling to grind out another decision win. That's not the case this time. He'll open his game up, and that is when Diaz will earn the stoppage.