College Basketball: Schmolik 64 Bracket Predictions Update (3/15/13)

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College Basketball: Schmolik 64 Bracket Predictions Update (3/15/13)
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Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the latest Schmolik 64 Update. Less than 48 hours remain until Selection Sunday!

This bracket considers results as of 7:40pm ET March 15, 2013. RPI data is as of morning of March 15 from CBSSports.com.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Indiana (27-5) vs. (16) Play In Game B Winner
(8) Memphis (28-4) vs. (9) Villanova (20-13)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) St. Louis (25-6) vs. (12) Play In Game D Winner
(4) Marquette (23-8) vs. (13) Valparaiso (26-7) *

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Illinois (21-12) vs. (11) Colorado (21-11)
(3) Florida (25-6) vs. (14) New Mexico State (21-10)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Notre Dame (25-8) vs. (10) Temple (23-8)
(2) Miami (25-6) vs. (15) Harvard (19-9) *

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Duke (27-4) vs. (16) LIU-Brooklyn (20-13)*
(8) Missouri (23-9) vs. (9) San Diego State (20-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Syracuse (25-8) vs. (12) Play In Game C Winner
(4) Kansas State (25-6) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (22-3)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Butler (24-7) vs. (11) Oregon (24-8)
(3) Ohio State (23-7) vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast (17-8)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) UNLV (24-8) vs. (10) Iowa State (22-10)
(2) Louisville (27-5) vs. (15) Vermont (21-10)

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(1) Gonzaga (31-2) vs. (16) Play In Game A Winner
(8) Colorado State (23-7) vs. (9) Minnesota (20-12)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)
 
(5) VCU (24-7) vs. (12) Bucknell (27-5) *
(4) Arizona (25-6) vs. (13) South Dakota State (22-9) *

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) North Carolina (22-9) vs. (11) Boise State (19-10)
(3) Michigan (26-7) vs. (14) Akron (23-6)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(7) Creighton (27-7)* vs. (10) Cincinnati (22-11)
(2) Kansas (27-5) vs. (15) Long Beach State (19-12)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Georgetown (25-5) vs. (16) Western Kentucky (19-15) *
(8) NC State (24-9) vs. (9) Belmont (24-6) *

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) Wisconsin (22-10) vs. (12) La Salle (21-9)
(4) Oklahoma State (24-7) vs. (13) Davidson (25-7) *

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) UCLA (24-8) vs. (11) Oklahoma (20-11)
(3) New Mexico (27-5) vs. (14) Montana (23-6)

 Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Pittsburgh (24-8) vs. (10) California (20-11)
(2) Michigan State (24-7) vs. (15) Iona (20-13)

FIRST FOUR (All Games in Dayton, OH)

Play In Game A: Tue. March 19: (West 16) James Madison (20-14) vs. Liberty (12-20)
Play In Game B: Wed, March 20: (Midwest 16) Southern (18-9) vs. Morgan State (16-14)

Play In Game C: Tue. March 19: (East 12): St. Mary's (26-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (23-8)
Play In Game D: Wed. March 20: (Midwest 12): Middle Tennessee State (28-5) vs. Wichita State (26-8)

Missed: Kentucky (48), Tennessee (55), Mississippi (56), Massachusetts (58), Alabama (63), Baylor (66), Virginia (68)

By Conference:
Big East: 8, Big Ten: 7, Atlantic 10: 5, Big 12: 5, Pacific 12: 5, Mountain West: 5, ACC: 4, C-USA, MVC, SEC, Sun Belt, WCC: 2, One Bid: 19

Analysis:

Indiana's win over Illinois this afternoon probably solidified its hold on a No. 1 seed, most likely in the Midwest Regional. That would probably be bad news for any teams placed in the Midwest as there should be a sea of crimson and cream in Lucas Oil Stadium should the Hoosiers advance there.

The Hoosiers are probably playing with house money but would sure love to beat Wisconsin, who beat them in Bloomington and has an 11-game winning streak against Indiana.

I feel Duke is closing in on a No. 1 seed, and a win tonight against Maryland clinches it. Remember that the Selection Committee is placing more emphasis on Duke with Ryan Kelly playing. 

Assuming Gonzaga keeps its No. 1 seed, I think if Louisville or Georgetown wins the Big East Conference Tournament, it will be a No. 1 seed. If neither does or if Duke loses early, the door would be open for Michigan State, Miami, Kansas, or Ohio State if any win their conference tournaments. Remember that Miami beat Michigan State, Michigan State beat Kansas, and Kansas beat Ohio State if it comes down to a head-to-head.

Right now I have Oklahoma State slightly ahead of Kansas State for the right to stay in the South Regional in the Dallas area and the first-round games in Austin. Expect that to change if Kansas State wins tonight in Kansas City. Other games that could affect seeding tonight are conference semifinals between UCLA and Arizona and between UNLV and Colorado State.

I doubt it will actually happen, but the last four in are all mid majors. All four have high RPI's but a lack of nonconference wins. Southern Mississippi refuses to lose and made the Conference USA final tomorrow. That should keep its RPI around where it is now (No. 34).

Southern Mississippi, Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's, and Wichita State need to watch out for the SEC. I think if Florida and Missouri make the SEC final, there is a good chance the SEC will have just two teams in the tournament. But if Kentucky or Mississippi and/or Alabama makes the final, someone is coming out. I think Southern Miss is the most vulnerable right now to be bounced out by a third SEC team, but it can lock up its bid by winning the championship in Tulsa tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter: @Schmolik64! 

Compare me to the Bracket Matrix.
And as always, give me some feedback! 

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