Fantasy Baseball 2013: Overvalued Stars Draftees Need to Pass on

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Overvalued Stars Draftees Need to Pass on
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Fantasy drafts can be the most maddening time for an owner trying to put together a team. Everyone has his or her own definition of what constitutes value, which can completely shift the way that the entire event can go. 

If you put a fourth-round grade on a player and another draftee has a second-round grade on him, then it completely changes the way that you will draft once said player is off the board. 

So in the interest of trying to keep you levelheaded during the madness of a fantasy draft, here are players getting overvalued that you should avoid the temptation to reach for. 

Average draft positions courtesy of ESPN.com

 

Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki (Avg. draft position: 13)

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Three-year averages: .305/.374/.545, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 67 R, 25 2B, 2 3B, 7 SB

If we were just talking about Tulowitzki's numbers, then there would be no question that he would warrant a selection at the end of the first round or beginning of the second round. Shortstop is not a deep position for offense anyway, so if there is someone who can hit for average and power, take them right away. 

Unfortunately, and this has become a trend, Tulowitzki has problems staying on the field. He missed 61 games in 2008, 40 games in 2010 and 115 games in 2012. 

When you are taking a player as high as Tulowitzki is going in drafts, you need some assurances that you are going to get at least 140 games. You can't predict injuries, but when certain players a long history of getting hurt, you can play cautiously. 

 

St. Louis Cardinals 1B Allen Craig (Avg. draft position: 58)

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Three-year averages: .300/.348/.515, 12 HR, 92 RBI, 40 R, 19 2B, 2 SB

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Going over Craig's numbers, some might struggle to come up with reasons for why he is a Top-60 pick. He has had one good season, his only one as a starter in 2012, but the same problem that has plagued him throughout his career also happened last year: injury. 

Craig was on his way to becoming a great fantasy player, but it is hard to put someone in that category when they have never played more than 120 games in a season. Even Tulowitzki has broken the 140-game barrier three times. 

I do like Craig as a fantasy option, and he could drive in 100 runs if he plays in 140 games, but we have no evidence he is capable of doing that. First base is a crowded position, and there are better options at more scarce positions to choose from (Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters, to name a few). 

 

Cleveland Indians OF Michael Bourn (Avg. draft position: 65)

Rob Tringali/Getty Images

Three-year averages: .279/.346/.376, 4 HR, 48 RBI, 91 R, 28 2B, 9 3B, 52 SB

Bourn is one of the most unique fantasy players in baseball. He only has one great skill (speed), but it helps him rack up stolen bases, one of the most overlooked stats in fantasy baseball. 

So the question is, how do you value a player like Bourn? There are plenty of speedsters out there who can get you stolen bases (Dee Gordon, Juan Pierre, to name a few) that won't cost you a pick nearly as high as Bourn

The fact that Bourn, who is 30 and will likely lose a step sooner than later, can score a lot of runs in an improved Indians lineup does help his value but enough to make him a mid fifth-round pick?

I don't see it.

Players going after Bourn include Austin Jackson, who is a better hitter with more power, and Carlos Santana, Bourn's teammate, who plays catcher and will hit 20 home runs in the middle of the lineup. 

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