The biggest move in future wagering for the Kentucky Derby this weekend could come from Super Ninety Nine, who figures to be the betting favorite for the Grade 2 $600,000 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.
The colt won the tune up for the Rebel in convincing fashion, winning the Grade 3 Southwest over a sloppy track by 11 ¼ lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee is currently listed at 16-1 in Derby future wagering, but another performance like his Southwest romp and the price figures to shrink.
"Baffert is always dangerous when shipping in to Oaklawn Park and he always has an impact on Kentucky Derby future betting prices," Mike Dempsey, veteran handicapper at TurfNSport.com, said in an interview Friday. "Going back five years, he has started 21 runners in Hot Springs, and 14 of them made it to the winner’s circle."
Last year, he won the split Southwest with Secret Circle and Castaway, the Rebel with Secret Circle and came back to win the Arkansas Derby with Bodemeister.
Baffert will also saddle Den’s Legacy, who finished in the runner-up spot in his last two starts in the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis. The winners of those two races were Flashback and Goldencents, who came back to run second and fourth respectively in the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 9.
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will saddle Oxbow, who is currently 40-1 in Derby future wagering. The colt took the field gate to the wire to win the Grade 3 LeComte by 11 ½ lengths, and last out, was a close up fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star.
Title Contender is sitting at 50-1 in Derby future wagering and is coming off a runner-up finish to Carve against first level optional claimers over the Oaklawn Park main track on Feb. 17.
Two others that could be factors in the Rebel are Grade 2 San Vicente runner-up Treasure Bill and Grade 2 Remsen third-place finisher Delhomme. Neither are currently on Derby futures lists.
Current Kentucky Derby odds as of March 15, 2013 provided by KentuckyDerbyOdds.ca:
It's My Lucky Day 10-1
Hear The Ghost 12-1
Normandy Invasion 16-1
Shanghai Bobby 16-1
Super Ninety Nine 16-1
Dice Flavor 20-1
Frac Daddy 25-1
Capo Bastone 33-1
Falling Sky 33-1
Ive Struck A Nerve 33-1
Power Broker 33-1
River Seven 33-1
Bern Identity 40-1
He's Had Enough 40-1
Dynamic Sky 50-1
Palace Malice 50-1
Title Contender 50-1